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Food basket in Yalgo

CENTRE-NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,979–6,509

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,590–7,037

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 5,625 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,979 and 6,509 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,590 and 7,037 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Yalgo: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 5,625 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,979 and 6,509 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,590 and 7,037 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,5005,0007,50010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,924–6,104 5,568 4,471–6,355
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 4,563–6,447 5,539 3,753–6,759
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,979–6,509 5,262 3,054–6,925
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,675–6,589 5,166 2,934–8,193
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,590–7,037 5,151 2,598–9,297
Cost history (76 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20266,110
Aug 20265,625
Jul 20265,294
Jun 20265,294
May 20265,294
Apr 20264,980
Mar 20264,532
Feb 20264,230
Jan 20264,199
Dec 20254,075
Nov 20255,690
Oct 20256,010
Sept 20257,084
Aug 20256,453
Jul 20257,298
Jun 20257,691
May 20257,379
Apr 20257,055
Mar 20256,719
Feb 20256,695
Jan 20256,365
Dec 20245,802
Nov 20245,862
Oct 20246,991
Sept 20247,168
Aug 20246,271
Jul 20246,158
Jun 20245,458
May 20245,426
Apr 20245,285
Mar 20245,270
Feb 20245,234
Jan 20245,647
Dec 20235,164
Nov 20235,152
Oct 20235,072
Sept 20234,877
Aug 20234,712
Jul 20234,694
Jun 20234,694
May 20234,757
Apr 20234,872
Mar 20235,072
Feb 20234,959
Jan 20234,936
Dec 20225,537
Nov 20225,731
Oct 20225,873
Sept 20226,383
Aug 20226,406
Jul 20226,087
Jun 20225,939
May 20225,735
Apr 20225,620
Mar 20225,099
Feb 20224,764
Jan 20224,694
Dec 20214,706
Nov 20214,335
Oct 20214,067
Sept 20213,985
Aug 20213,830
Jul 20213,720
Jun 20213,671
May 20213,695
Apr 20213,759
Mar 20213,437
Feb 20213,219
Jan 20212,864
Dec 20202,729
Nov 20203,116
Oct 20203,436
Sept 20203,528
Aug 20203,372
Jul 20203,228
Jun 20203,228

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508