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Sorghum (white) in Ziniaré

PLATEAU-CENTRAL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

130–217

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

125–229

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 130 and 217 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 125 and 229 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Ziniaré: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 130 and 217 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 125 and 229 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 160–209 189 157–221 254 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 136–211 177 99.1–225 224 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 130–217 169 94.3–246 222 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 124–221 168 89.3–260 219 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 125–229 172 83–277 227 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026212
Aug 2026195
Jul 2026162
Jun 2026169
May 2026175
Apr 2026175
Mar 2026177
Feb 2026173
Jan 2026191
Dec 2025189
Nov 2025189
Oct 2025186
Sept 2025243
Aug 2025255
Jul 2025251
Jun 2025272
May 2025263
Apr 2025269
Mar 2025282
Feb 2025275
Jan 2025246
Dec 2024249
Nov 2024245
Oct 2024285
Sept 2024299
Aug 2024337
Jul 2024231
Jun 2024231
May 2024227
Apr 2024219
Mar 2024223
Feb 2024210
Jan 2024188
Dec 2023184
Nov 2023195
Oct 2023193
Sept 2023218
Aug 2023231
Jul 2023223
Jun 2023205
May 2023223
Apr 2023218
Mar 2023223
Feb 2023223
Jan 2023205
Dec 2022197
Nov 2022202
Oct 2022212
Sept 2022257
Aug 2022284
Jul 2022278
Jun 2022274
May 2022260
Apr 2022228
Mar 2022233
Feb 2022211
Jan 2022201
Dec 2021181
Nov 2021171
Oct 2021166
Sept 2021159
Aug 2021168
Jul 2021159
Jun 2021164
May 2021154
Apr 2021138
Mar 2021127
Feb 2021123
Jan 2021123
Dec 2020123
Nov 2020123
Oct 2020123
Sept 2020123
Aug 2020129
Jul 2020123
Jun 2020123
May 2020123
Apr 2020123
Mar 2020123
Feb 2020123
Jan 2020118
Dec 2019114
Nov 2019116
Oct 2019116
Sept 2019117
Aug 2019123
Jul 2019123
Jun 2019123
May 2019140
Apr 2019140
Mar 2019145
Feb 2019136
Jan 2019123
Dec 2018136
Nov 2018158
Oct 2018140
Sept 2018189
Aug 2018205
Jul 2018193
Jun 2018193
May 2018193
Apr 2018189
Mar 2018180
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017149
Nov 2017140
Oct 2017136
Sept 2017167
Aug 2017158
Jul 2017164
Jun 2017162
May 2017158
Apr 2017158
Mar 2017165
Feb 2017140
Jan 2017136
Dec 2016123
Nov 2016123
Oct 2016135
Sept 2016158
Aug 2016154
Jul 2016145
Jun 2016143
May 2016151
Apr 2016158
Mar 2016154
Feb 2016142
Jan 2016123
Dec 2015123
Nov 2015114
Oct 2015127
Sept 2015153
Aug 2015145
Jul 2015149
Jun 2015158
May 2015155
Apr 2015146
Mar 2015158
Feb 2015143
Jan 2015148

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3402-135-retail-kg.