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Sorghum (white) in Zorgho

PLATEAU-CENTRAL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 35% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

128–198

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

131–217

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 128 and 198 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 131 and 217 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Zorgho: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 128 and 198 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 131 and 217 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 160–194 177 143–212 271 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 135–194 168 105–206 233 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 128–198 164 101–236 228 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 127–205 170 86.4–253 240 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 131–217 173 98.8–298 254 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026185
Aug 2026177
Jul 2026175
Jun 2026173
May 2026179
Apr 2026192
Mar 2026188
Feb 2026192
Jan 2026195
Dec 2025203
Nov 2025195
Oct 2025215
Sept 2025232
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025262
Jun 2025264
May 2025264
Apr 2025277
Mar 2025286
Feb 2025266
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024360
Nov 2024252
Oct 2024280
Sept 2024292
Aug 2024301
Jul 2024270
Jun 2024260
May 2024256
Apr 2024261
Mar 2024232
Feb 2024228
Jan 2024215
Dec 2023216
Nov 2023204
Oct 2023206
Sept 2023232
Aug 2023233
Jul 2023212
Jun 2023222
May 2023218
Apr 2023223
Mar 2023230
Feb 2023228
Jan 2023217
Dec 2022188
Nov 2022212
Oct 2022258
Sept 2022310
Aug 2022326
Jul 2022279
Jun 2022272
May 2022273
Apr 2022271
Mar 2022256
Feb 2022215
Jan 2022199
Dec 2021174
Nov 2021150
Oct 2021130
Sept 2021145
Aug 2021152
Jul 2021141
Jun 2021131
May 2021137
Apr 2021131
Mar 2021148
Feb 2021125
Jan 2021114
Dec 2020110
Nov 2020113
Oct 2020100
Sept 2020140
Aug 2020152
Jul 2020127
Jun 2020112
May 2020118
Apr 2020103
Mar 2020112
Feb 2020114
Jan 2020114
Dec 2019102
Nov 2019107
Oct 2019107
Sept 201999
Aug 2019113
Jul 2019106
Jun 2019110
May 2019122
Apr 2019128
Mar 2019149
Feb 2019133
Jan 2019134
Dec 2018117
Nov 2018118
Oct 2018117
Sept 2018163
Aug 2018196
Jul 2018186
Jun 2018186
May 2018185
Apr 2018188
Mar 2018199
Feb 2018189
Jan 2018167
Dec 2017168
Nov 2017142
Oct 2017138
Sept 2017175
Aug 2017179
Jul 2017163
Jun 2017155
May 2017155
Apr 2017150
Mar 2017139
Feb 2017137
Jan 2017137
Dec 2016108
Nov 2016115
Oct 2016129
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016141
Jul 2016128
Jun 2016140
May 2016142
Apr 2016135
Mar 2016135
Feb 2016133
Jan 2016133
Dec 2015117
Nov 2015117
Oct 2015133
Sept 2015150
Aug 2015150
Jul 2015143
Jun 2015150
May 2015147
Apr 2015142
Mar 2015142
Feb 2015135
Jan 2015133

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-3403-135-retail-kg.