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Oil (palm) in Rugombo

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,704–10,758

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,461–11,248

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,704 and 10,758 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,461 and 11,248 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Rugombo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,704 and 10,758 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,461 and 11,248 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,384–10,422 8,984 7,995–10,830 10,718 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,727–10,416 8,695 7,095–11,011 9,870 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,704–10,758 8,654 7,232–12,368 9,983 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,509–10,691 8,404 6,747–13,395 9,383 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,461–11,248 8,664 6,467–13,895 9,754 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,417
Jul 20268,900
Jun 20268,550
May 20269,382
Apr 20269,500
Mar 20268,067
Feb 20268,899
Jan 20268,978
Dec 20258,327
Nov 20259,625
Oct 20259,199
Sept 202510,061
Aug 20259,500
Jul 202510,251
Jun 20258,564
May 20259,588
Apr 202510,281
Mar 20259,196
Feb 20258,762
Jan 20258,250
Dec 20247,431
Nov 20247,713
Oct 20247,405
Sept 20247,578
Aug 20248,218
Jul 20247,578
Jun 20248,604
May 20245,897
Apr 20245,907
Mar 20245,675
Feb 20246,243
Jan 20246,529
Dec 20235,500
Nov 20236,150
Oct 20236,573
Sept 20236,505
Aug 20236,118
Jul 20235,548
Jun 20235,329
May 20235,000
Apr 20234,134
Mar 20234,460
Feb 20233,870
Jan 20233,750
Dec 20224,123
Nov 20224,111
Oct 20224,391
Sept 20225,958
Aug 20225,833
May 20224,908
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20224,200
Feb 20224,375
Jan 20224,100
Oct 20214,250
Sept 20214,870
May 20214,100
Apr 20214,115
Mar 20213,333
Feb 20213,125
Jan 20213,091
Dec 20203,050
Nov 20203,375
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20203,146
Aug 20203,025
Jul 20203,292
Jun 20203,172
Mar 20203,179
Feb 20203,125
Jan 20202,650
Dec 20192,938
Nov 20192,812
Oct 20192,500
Sept 20192,575
Aug 20192,710
Jul 20192,670
Jun 20192,625
May 20192,700
Mar 20193,100
Feb 20193,440
Jan 20193,675
Dec 20183,160
Nov 20183,440
Oct 20183,929
Sept 20184,083
Aug 20183,983
Jul 20183,960
Jun 20182,983
May 20182,733

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-1826-62-retail-kg.