Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Cassava flour in Rugombo

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 0% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,327–2,174

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,347–2,582

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 28% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,327 and 2,174 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,347 and 2,582 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Rugombo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 28% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,327 and 2,174 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,347 and 2,582 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,620); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,397–1,882 1,541 1,239–2,127 1,612 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,368–1,966 1,553 1,147–2,027 1,534 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,327–2,174 1,533 1,023–2,803 1,747 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,306–2,320 1,545 1,025–3,077 1,749 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,347–2,582 1,622 1,121–4,620 1,836 –
Price history (129 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,500
Jul 20262,000
Jun 20261,716
May 20262,082
Apr 20262,062
Mar 20262,293
Feb 20261,695
Jan 20261,957
Dec 20251,290
Nov 20251,200
Oct 20251,200
Sept 20251,511
Aug 20251,267
Jul 20251,572
Jun 20251,574
May 20251,651
Apr 20251,581
Mar 20251,594
Feb 20251,364
Jan 20251,285
Dec 20241,300
Nov 20241,300
Oct 20241,300
Sept 20241,262
Aug 20241,200
Jul 20241,244
Jun 20241,280
May 20241,514
Apr 20241,826
Mar 20241,861
Feb 20241,856
Jan 20241,882
Dec 20231,933
Nov 20231,800
Oct 20231,593
Sept 20231,569
Aug 20231,497
Jul 20231,702
Jun 20232,021
May 20232,000
Apr 20232,000
Mar 20231,800
Feb 20231,730
Jan 20231,800
Dec 20221,464
Nov 20221,359
Oct 20221,228
Sept 20221,250
Aug 20221,033
May 20221,270
Apr 20221,200
Mar 20221,200
Feb 20221,200
Jan 20221,150
Oct 20211,025
Sept 20211,000
May 20211,150
Apr 20211,083
Mar 20211,046
Feb 20211,025
Jan 20211,032
Dec 20201,047
Nov 2020940
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020788
Aug 2020722
Jul 2020742
Jun 2020780
Mar 2020807
Feb 2020750
Jan 2020762
Dec 2019703
Oct 2019600
Aug 2019607
Jul 2019585
Jun 2019600
May 2019670
Mar 2019646
Feb 2019592
Jan 2019662
Dec 2018685
Nov 2018677
Oct 2018709
Sept 2018603
Aug 2018759
Jul 2018859
Jun 2018891
May 20181,022
Apr 20181,000
Mar 2018969
Feb 2018971
Jan 20181,036
Dec 20171,160
Nov 20171,243
Oct 20171,178
Sept 20171,233
Aug 20171,317
Jun 20171,438
Apr 20171,391
Mar 20171,350
Feb 20171,136
Jan 2017993
Dec 2016993
Nov 2016907
Oct 2016792
Sept 2016711
Aug 2016800
Jul 2016836
Jun 2016863
May 2016874
Apr 2016841
Mar 2016824
Feb 2016695
Jan 2016720
Dec 2015774
Nov 2015625
Oct 2015611
Sept 2015580
Aug 2015596
Jul 2015698
Jun 2015708
May 2015762
Apr 2015697
Mar 2015681
Feb 2015674
Jan 2015639
Dec 2014705
Nov 2014616
Oct 2014588

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-1826-74-retail-kg.