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Maize flour in Rugombo

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,989–2,765

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,936–2,769

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,989 and 2,765 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,936 and 2,769 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Rugombo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,989 and 2,765 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,936 and 2,769 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,883–2,363 2,093 1,697–2,507 2,592 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,943–2,571 2,236 1,678–2,631 2,874 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,989–2,765 2,301 1,732–3,347 3,137 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,979–2,850 2,359 1,689–3,498 3,444 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,936–2,769 2,254 1,612–3,234 2,955 –
Price history (117 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,142
Jul 20262,000
Jun 20261,912
May 20262,000
Apr 20261,950
Mar 20261,860
Feb 20262,029
Jan 20262,747
Dec 20252,697
Nov 20252,562
Oct 20252,676
Sept 20252,094
Aug 20252,000
Jul 20252,000
Jun 20252,026
May 20251,918
Apr 20251,952
Mar 20251,973
Feb 20252,093
Jan 20252,985
Dec 20243,617
Nov 20242,672
Oct 20242,459
Sept 20242,276
Aug 20242,131
Jul 20241,900
Jun 20241,846
May 20241,786
Apr 20241,900
Mar 20241,870
Feb 20241,969
Jan 20242,082
Dec 20232,300
Nov 20232,500
Oct 20232,493
Sept 20232,275
Aug 20232,171
Jul 20232,000
Jun 20231,979
May 20231,876
Apr 20231,912
Mar 20231,871
Feb 20231,622
Jan 20232,567
Dec 20222,748
Nov 20222,394
Oct 20222,362
Sept 20221,721
Aug 20221,908
May 20221,457
Apr 20221,550
Mar 20221,190
Feb 20221,225
Jan 20221,450
Oct 20211,400
Sept 20211,450
May 20211,125
Apr 20211,110
Mar 20211,058
Feb 20211,275
Jan 20211,385
Dec 20201,433
Nov 20201,425
Oct 20201,200
Sept 20201,229
Aug 20201,166
Jul 20201,045
Jun 2020903
Mar 20201,092
Feb 2020868
Jan 20201,665
Dec 20191,671
Oct 20191,449
Aug 20191,091
Jul 20191,248
Jun 2019800
May 2019850
Mar 2019750
Feb 20191,050
Jan 2019975
Dec 20181,180
Nov 20181,020
Oct 2018900
Sept 2018825
Aug 2018850
Jul 2018840
Jun 2018767
May 2018942
Jun 20171,775
Mar 20171,687
Dec 20161,670
Nov 20161,516
Oct 20161,381
Sept 20161,342
Aug 20161,318
Jul 20161,178
Jun 20161,003
May 20161,151
Apr 2016932
Mar 2016953
Feb 20161,076
Jan 20161,291
Dec 20151,325
Nov 20151,289
Oct 20151,194
Sept 20151,058
Aug 2015983
Jul 20151,000
Jun 2015981
May 2015989
Apr 2015877
Mar 2015817
Feb 2015882
Jan 2015963
Dec 20141,068
Nov 20141,063
Oct 2014892

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-1826-76-retail-kg.