Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (vegetable) in Rugombo

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

11,692–16,624

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

11,065–16,637

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,692 and 16,624 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,065 and 16,637 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Rugombo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,692 and 16,624 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,065 and 16,637 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 11,941–15,569 13,221 11,006–15,806 16,855 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 11,837–15,906 13,131 10,857–18,163 16,381 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 11,692–16,624 13,073 10,029–18,715 16,068 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 11,584–16,650 13,019 9,790–16,843 15,969 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 11,065–16,637 13,051 9,540–17,102 15,867 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202613,667
Jul 202612,500
Jun 202614,359
May 202613,118
Apr 202613,062
Mar 202614,467
Feb 202612,030
Jan 202612,627
Dec 202513,667
Nov 202514,802
Oct 202513,821
Sept 202515,778
Aug 202513,500
Jul 202514,328
Jun 202514,006
May 202514,291
Apr 202514,719
Mar 202514,039
Feb 202512,179
Jan 202512,375
Dec 202412,299
Nov 202411,783
Oct 202413,891
Sept 202412,682
Aug 202412,774
Jul 202411,667
Jun 202410,385
May 20248,843
Apr 20248,778
Mar 20248,529
Feb 20248,444
Jan 20249,000
Dec 20237,333
Nov 20238,250
Oct 20238,322
Sept 20238,490
Aug 20237,925
Jul 20238,221
Jun 20237,936
May 20237,279
Apr 20235,888
Mar 20236,801
Feb 20236,819
Jan 20236,750
Dec 20227,955
Nov 20227,721
Oct 20228,016
Sept 20228,271
Aug 20227,633
May 20227,083
Apr 20226,500
Mar 20226,460
Feb 20225,900
Jan 20227,000
Oct 20217,000
Sept 20217,000
May 20215,600
Apr 20215,177
Mar 20214,508
Feb 20215,000
Jan 20214,637
Dec 20204,556
Nov 20204,812
Oct 20204,000
Sept 20204,496
Aug 20204,500
Jul 20204,500
Jun 20204,434
Mar 20204,062
Feb 20203,750
Jan 20203,500
Dec 20193,500
Nov 20193,500
Oct 20193,375
Sept 20193,750
Aug 20194,200
Jul 20194,000
Jun 20193,500
May 20193,350
Mar 20193,900
Feb 20194,600
Jan 20194,000
Dec 20184,700
Nov 20184,100
Oct 20184,600
Sept 20184,217
Aug 20183,967
Jul 20184,200
Jun 20183,500
May 20184,117

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-1826-96-retail-kg.