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Food basket in Rugombo

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

27,597–39,626

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,376–45,273

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,482 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,597 and 39,626 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,376 and 45,273 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Rugombo: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 30,482 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,597 and 39,626 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,376 and 45,273 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 69,870); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 28,741–35,395 31,094 27,141–38,207
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 28,185–35,858 31,174 25,908–37,701
Nov 2026
Next month		 27,597–39,626 31,250 24,504–48,775
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 27,238–42,501 31,338 23,853–54,024
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,376–45,273 32,369 24,856–69,870
Cost history (88 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202630,482
Jul 202635,901
Jun 202632,208
May 202638,561
Apr 202639,068
Mar 202639,746
Feb 202631,853
Jan 202634,456
Dec 202526,337
Nov 202526,460
Oct 202526,253
Sept 202530,335
Aug 202527,095
Jul 202531,270
Jun 202530,354
May 202532,174
Apr 202532,418
Mar 202530,954
Feb 202527,869
Jan 202526,040
Dec 202427,557
Nov 202427,249
Oct 202427,009
Sept 202426,255
Aug 202425,337
Jul 202424,902
Jun 202425,970
May 202426,938
Apr 202430,544
Mar 202430,674
Feb 202430,893
Jan 202430,725
Dec 202331,555
Nov 202331,064
Oct 202329,074
Sept 202328,605
Aug 202327,512
Jul 202329,123
Jun 202332,350
May 202332,485
Apr 202333,198
Mar 202331,083
Feb 202328,373
Jan 202328,628
Dec 202224,478
Nov 202223,044
Oct 202221,252
Sept 202222,156
Aug 202219,365
May 202222,179
Apr 202220,385
Mar 202219,534
Feb 202219,624
Jan 202218,609
Oct 202117,662
Sept 202117,745
May 202119,239
Apr 202118,392
Mar 202117,430
Feb 202116,886
Jan 202116,618
Dec 202017,591
Nov 202016,579
Oct 202013,170
Sept 202014,399
Aug 202013,467
Jul 202013,511
Jun 202013,705
Mar 202014,301
Feb 202013,339
Jan 202013,059
Dec 201912,724
Oct 201911,189
Aug 201911,109
Jul 201911,030
Jun 201911,216
May 201912,189
Mar 201912,004
Feb 201911,267
Jan 201912,523
Dec 201812,560
Nov 201812,609
Oct 201813,237
Sept 201811,962
Aug 201813,601
Jul 201814,812
Jun 201814,506
May 201816,101

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620