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Oil (palm) in Musenyi

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,263–8,614

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,314–9,270

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,263 and 8,614 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,314 and 9,270 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Musenyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,263 and 8,614 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,314 and 9,270 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 6,753–8,359 7,405 6,142–8,640 8,550 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,275–8,366 7,254 5,783–8,399 7,912 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,263–8,614 7,270 5,514–10,005 7,690 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,275–8,821 7,292 5,532–10,220 7,918 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,314–9,270 7,515 5,330–10,774 8,387 –
Price history (97 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20268,000
Aug 20267,657
Jul 20268,000
Jun 20268,128
May 20267,967
Apr 20267,817
Mar 20267,560
Feb 20267,644
Jan 20267,451
Dec 20257,354
Nov 20258,083
Oct 20258,697
Sept 20259,783
Aug 202511,167
Jul 20257,250
Jun 20259,265
May 20259,904
Apr 20259,833
Mar 202510,750
Feb 20258,048
Jan 20256,663
Dec 20245,678
Nov 20245,154
Oct 20245,417
Sept 20245,750
Aug 20245,778
Jul 20246,098
Jun 20246,000
May 20245,908
Apr 20244,917
Mar 20244,369
Feb 20244,972
Jan 20244,667
Dec 20234,417
Nov 20235,000
Oct 20234,831
Sept 20235,217
Aug 20235,560
Jul 20235,647
Jun 20236,000
May 20235,833
Apr 20235,000
Mar 20234,200
Feb 20234,083
Jan 20233,250
Dec 20223,500
Nov 20223,158
Oct 20223,322
Sept 20223,878
Aug 20224,417
Jul 20224,500
Jun 20224,000
May 20224,245
Apr 20223,675
Mar 20223,511
Feb 20223,400
Jan 20223,400
Oct 20213,200
Sept 20213,083
May 20212,600
Apr 20212,412
Mar 20212,200
Feb 20212,294
Jan 20212,092
Dec 20202,078
Nov 20201,778
Oct 20202,000
Sept 20201,986
Aug 20202,113
Jul 20202,412
Jun 20202,444
Mar 20202,368
Feb 20202,336
Jan 20202,317
Dec 20192,327
Nov 20192,150
Oct 20192,083
Sept 20192,206
Aug 20192,390
Jul 20192,617
Jun 20192,440
May 20192,658
Mar 20192,305
Feb 20192,246
Jan 20191,935
Dec 20181,992
Nov 20182,015
Oct 20181,920
Sept 20182,342
Aug 20182,770
Jul 20182,927
Jun 20182,688
May 20182,809
Apr 20182,480
Mar 20182,200
Feb 20182,080
Jan 20182,033

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-1827-62-retail-kg.