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Maize (white) in Musenyi

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,693–2,599

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,605–2,671

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,693 and 2,599 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,605 and 2,671 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Musenyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,693 and 2,599 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,605 and 2,671 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,610–2,177 1,832 1,471–2,348 2,417 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,640–2,402 1,901 1,456–2,624 2,573 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,693–2,599 1,960 1,485–2,997 2,786 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,697–2,715 2,059 1,504–3,103 2,885 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,605–2,671 1,958 1,477–3,009 2,704 –
Price history (130 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20261,800
Aug 20261,718
Jul 20261,650
Jun 20261,488
May 20262,067
Apr 20261,875
Mar 20262,072
Feb 20262,245
Jan 20262,275
Dec 20252,167
Nov 20252,367
Oct 20252,074
Sept 20251,726
Aug 20251,822
Jul 20251,850
Jun 20251,562
May 20251,898
Apr 20251,775
Mar 20251,810
Feb 20252,486
Jan 20252,708
Dec 20242,930
Nov 20242,418
Oct 20242,333
Sept 20242,067
Aug 20241,994
Jul 20241,924
Jun 20241,677
May 20241,762
Apr 20241,800
Mar 20242,089
Feb 20241,761
Jan 20242,000
Dec 20231,933
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20232,190
Sept 20232,296
Aug 20232,168
Jul 20231,837
Jun 20231,800
May 20231,800
Apr 20232,000
Mar 20231,972
Feb 20232,083
Jan 20232,167
Dec 20222,200
Nov 20222,050
Oct 20221,981
Sept 20221,442
Aug 20221,700
Jun 20221,500
May 20221,371
Apr 20221,260
Mar 2022933
Feb 2022800
Sept 20211,333
May 2021750
Apr 2021804
Mar 2021683
Feb 2021883
Jan 20211,100
Dec 20201,248
Nov 20201,277
Oct 20201,000
Sept 20201,117
Aug 20201,064
Jul 2020825
Jun 2020620
Mar 2020640
Feb 2020655
Jan 20201,213
Dec 20191,267
Oct 20191,050
Aug 2019717
Jul 2019835
Jun 2019650
May 2019633
Mar 2019700
Feb 2019721
Jan 2019867
Dec 2018960
Nov 20181,006
Oct 2018765
Sept 2018830
Aug 2018740
Jul 2018805
Jun 2018727
May 2018725
Apr 2018733
Mar 2018686
Feb 2018700
Jan 2018813
Nov 20171,200
Oct 20171,450
Sept 20171,183
Aug 20171,450
Jul 20171,183
Jun 2017925
May 20171,054
Apr 20171,178
Mar 20171,267
Feb 20171,311
Jan 20171,433
Dec 20161,433
Nov 2016990
Oct 2016942
Sept 2016942
Aug 2016888
Jul 2016772
Jun 2016542
May 2016579
Apr 2016588
Mar 2016450
Feb 2016464
Jan 2016870
Dec 2015907
Nov 2015658
Oct 2015674
Sept 2015654
Aug 2015604
Jul 2015435
Jun 2015509
May 2015374
Apr 2015321
Mar 2015324
Feb 2015376
Jan 2015520
Dec 2014630
Nov 2014681
Oct 2014742

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-1827-67-retail-kg.