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Cassava flour in Musenyi

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 19% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,482–2,466

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,503–2,845

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,482 and 2,466 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,503 and 2,845 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Musenyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,482 and 2,466 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,503 and 2,845 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,051); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,559–2,184 1,904 1,501–2,271 1,726 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,490–2,298 1,850 1,303–2,762 1,660 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,482–2,466 1,853 1,415–2,793 1,938 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,434–2,653 1,831 1,357–3,598 1,903 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,503–2,845 1,878 1,354–4,051 1,916 –
Price history (133 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20261,900
Aug 20262,063
Jul 20262,000
Jun 20261,895
May 20261,950
Apr 20261,742
Mar 20261,677
Feb 20261,708
Jan 20261,659
Dec 20251,648
Nov 20251,600
Oct 20251,525
Sept 20251,261
Aug 20251,411
Jul 20251,750
Jun 20251,610
May 20251,718
Apr 20251,583
Mar 20251,556
Feb 20251,619
Jan 20251,635
Dec 20241,889
Nov 20241,659
Oct 20241,467
Sept 20241,533
Aug 20241,585
Jul 20241,684
Jun 20241,660
May 20241,739
Apr 20241,867
Mar 20241,922
Feb 20241,931
Jan 20241,942
Dec 20231,983
Nov 20232,000
Oct 20231,964
Sept 20231,931
Aug 20232,070
Jul 20231,923
Jun 20232,033
May 20231,917
Apr 20232,000
Mar 20231,978
Feb 20231,767
Jan 20231,667
Dec 20221,250
Nov 20221,467
Oct 20221,123
Sept 20221,069
Aug 20221,183
Jul 20221,200
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,316
Apr 20221,335
Mar 20221,117
Feb 20221,150
Jan 20221,050
Sept 2021900
May 20211,000
Apr 20211,000
Mar 2021850
Feb 2021828
Jan 2021850
Dec 2020863
Nov 2020710
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020590
Aug 2020614
Jul 2020738
Jun 2020749
Mar 2020795
Feb 2020664
Jan 2020615
Dec 2019573
Oct 2019433
Aug 2019645
Jul 2019454
Jun 2019610
May 2019633
Mar 2019588
Feb 2019564
Jan 2019512
Dec 2018496
Nov 2018491
Oct 2018457
Sept 2018473
Aug 2018500
Jul 2018564
Jun 2018738
May 2018903
Apr 2018895
Mar 2018845
Feb 2018850
Jan 2018929
Dec 2017975
Nov 20171,060
Oct 20171,008
Sept 20171,278
Aug 20171,183
Jul 20171,411
Jun 20171,266
May 20171,308
Apr 20171,358
Mar 20171,283
Feb 20171,167
Jan 20171,233
Dec 20161,233
Nov 2016967
Oct 2016967
Sept 2016900
Aug 2016896
Jul 2016878
Jun 2016900
May 2016958
Apr 20161,042
Mar 2016863
Feb 2016764
Jan 2016707
Dec 2015700
Nov 2015684
Oct 2015667
Sept 2015700
Aug 2015650
Jul 2015763
Jun 2015750
May 2015697
Apr 2015671
Mar 2015664
Feb 2015658
Jan 2015650
Dec 2014725
Nov 2014823
Oct 2014759

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-1827-74-retail-kg.