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Maize flour in Musenyi

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,044–2,847

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,968–2,906

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 2,044 and 2,847 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,968 and 2,906 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Musenyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 2,044 and 2,847 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,968 and 2,906 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,014–2,412 2,168 1,858–2,687 2,722 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,947–2,556 2,202 1,823–2,638 2,626 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,044–2,847 2,334 1,871–3,440 3,108 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,029–2,928 2,396 1,832–3,362 3,219 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,968–2,906 2,328 1,843–3,040 3,054 –
Price history (134 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20262,000
Aug 20262,065
Jul 20262,100
Jun 20261,942
May 20262,333
Apr 20262,192
Mar 20262,438
Feb 20262,563
Jan 20262,578
Dec 20252,585
Nov 20252,417
Oct 20252,211
Sept 20252,013
Aug 20252,000
Jul 20251,900
Jun 20251,899
May 20252,327
Apr 20252,133
Mar 20252,273
Feb 20252,831
Jan 20252,825
Dec 20243,216
Nov 20242,590
Oct 20242,208
Sept 20242,200
Aug 20242,150
Jul 20241,985
Jun 20241,802
May 20241,844
Apr 20242,050
Mar 20242,089
Feb 20242,001
Jan 20242,188
Dec 20232,150
Nov 20232,175
Oct 20232,299
Sept 20232,403
Aug 20232,104
Jul 20232,072
Jun 20232,000
May 20231,933
Apr 20231,925
Mar 20232,044
Feb 20232,283
Jan 20232,500
Dec 20222,467
Nov 20222,483
Oct 20221,831
Sept 20221,598
Aug 20221,467
Jul 20221,500
Jun 20221,300
May 20221,504
Apr 20221,570
Mar 20221,456
Feb 20221,650
Jan 20221,550
Oct 20211,200
Sept 20211,458
May 2021950
Apr 2021990
Mar 2021883
Feb 20211,156
Jan 20211,283
Dec 20201,400
Nov 20201,423
Oct 20201,200
Sept 20201,269
Aug 20201,170
Jul 2020933
Jun 2020817
Mar 2020863
Feb 2020905
Jan 20201,400
Dec 20191,426
Oct 20191,142
Aug 2019761
Jul 2019967
Jun 2019840
May 2019775
Mar 2019727
Feb 2019833
Jan 2019838
Dec 2018888
Nov 2018890
Oct 2018810
Sept 2018821
Aug 2018780
Jul 2018755
Jun 2018733
May 2018718
Apr 2018600
Mar 2018700
Feb 2018840
Jan 20181,100
Dec 20171,183
Nov 20171,300
Oct 20171,275
Sept 20171,386
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,376
Jun 20171,264
May 20171,315
Apr 20171,273
Mar 20171,247
Feb 20171,315
Jan 20171,498
Dec 20161,519
Nov 20161,294
Oct 2016967
Sept 20161,084
Aug 20161,008
Jul 20161,005
Jun 20161,000
May 20161,167
Apr 20161,208
Mar 2016950
Feb 2016917
Jan 20161,053
Dec 20151,117
Nov 20151,067
Oct 2015967
Sept 2015875
Aug 2015840
Jul 2015875
Jun 2015766
May 2015873
Apr 2015808
Mar 2015753
Feb 2015750
Jan 2015900
Dec 2014933
Nov 20141,053
Oct 2014944

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-1827-76-retail-kg.