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Oil (vegetable) in Musenyi

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

11,509–17,941

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

11,565–18,956

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,509 and 17,941 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,565 and 18,956 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Musenyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,509 and 17,941 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,565 and 18,956 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 11,617–15,942 13,500 10,873–16,770 17,530 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 11,459–16,499 13,763 10,634–19,629 17,650 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 11,509–17,941 13,815 10,370–20,161 17,572 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 11,455–18,281 13,833 10,199–20,091 17,674 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 11,565–18,956 14,344 10,333–23,149 19,652 –
Price history (97 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202614,000
Aug 202612,608
Jul 202614,000
Jun 202614,400
May 202613,583
Apr 202615,250
Mar 202612,872
Feb 202612,226
Jan 202615,392
Dec 202514,979
Nov 202514,333
Oct 202515,965
Sept 202517,196
Aug 202516,667
Jul 202515,750
Jun 202517,117
May 202516,725
Apr 202518,000
Mar 202517,312
Feb 202516,810
Jan 202519,019
Dec 202414,811
Nov 202412,897
Oct 202414,250
Sept 202414,500
Aug 202414,759
Jul 202413,265
Jun 202412,104
May 202410,009
Apr 202410,000
Mar 20249,444
Feb 20249,028
Jan 20249,667
Dec 20238,333
Nov 202310,000
Oct 20238,156
Sept 20238,188
Aug 20238,720
Jul 20238,408
Jun 20238,333
May 20238,000
Apr 20238,000
Mar 20238,000
Feb 20239,667
Jan 20239,667
Dec 20229,667
Nov 202210,333
Oct 20229,833
Sept 20228,812
Aug 20229,167
Jul 20229,000
Jun 202212,000
May 202210,235
Apr 20228,600
Mar 20228,833
Feb 202210,250
Jan 20228,750
Oct 20218,500
Sept 20218,000
May 20216,750
Apr 20216,454
Mar 20216,483
Feb 20216,639
Jan 20216,458
Dec 20206,519
Nov 20206,350
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20205,824
Aug 20205,287
Jul 20204,927
Jun 20204,796
Mar 20205,200
Feb 20204,864
Jan 20205,000
Dec 20194,591
Nov 20194,108
Oct 20194,317
Sept 20194,067
Aug 20194,390
Jul 20194,408
Jun 20194,660
May 20194,425
Mar 20194,191
Feb 20194,617
Jan 20194,392
Dec 20184,133
Nov 20184,260
Oct 20184,760
Sept 20184,425
Aug 20184,330
Jul 20184,227
Jun 20184,517
May 20184,455
Apr 20184,500
Mar 20184,500
Feb 20184,440
Jan 20184,417

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-1827-96-retail-kg.