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Food basket in Musenyi

Bubanza, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

28,565–41,469

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

28,475–46,140

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 35,599 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,565 and 41,469 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 28,475 and 46,140 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Musenyi: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 35,599 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,565 and 41,469 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 28,475 and 46,140 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 60,329); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 29,728–37,153 33,755 28,704–38,650
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 28,787–39,036 33,171 26,372–44,015
Nov 2026
Next month		 28,565–41,469 33,359 27,158–46,829
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 27,917–44,753 33,440 26,458–56,309
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 28,475–46,140 33,779 26,321–60,329
Cost history (94 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 202633,540
Aug 202635,599
Jul 202634,920
Jun 202633,980
May 202636,217
Apr 202632,609
Mar 202630,963
Feb 202631,440
Jan 202630,359
Dec 202530,324
Nov 202530,327
Oct 202529,550
Sept 202526,889
Aug 202529,238
Jul 202531,132
Jun 202530,406
May 202532,842
Apr 202531,740
Mar 202531,732
Feb 202530,527
Jan 202529,977
Dec 202432,958
Nov 202429,667
Oct 202427,413
Sept 202428,067
Aug 202428,526
Jul 202428,942
Jun 202428,160
May 202429,938
Apr 202430,893
Mar 202430,902
Feb 202431,323
Jan 202431,260
Dec 202332,337
Nov 202332,670
Oct 202332,341
Sept 202331,383
Aug 202332,798
Jul 202330,951
Jun 202334,180
May 202332,575
Apr 202333,480
Mar 202332,841
Feb 202329,358
Jan 202327,283
Dec 202221,495
Nov 202223,679
Oct 202219,041
Sept 202218,337
Aug 202219,827
Jul 202220,025
Jun 202220,220
May 202222,644
Apr 202221,256
Mar 202218,053
Feb 202218,306
Jan 202216,881
Sept 202115,417
May 202116,899
Apr 202116,636
Mar 202114,298
Feb 202113,917
Jan 202113,803
Dec 202015,083
Nov 202012,849
Oct 202012,480
Sept 202011,128
Aug 202011,490
Jul 202012,662
Jun 202012,544
Mar 202013,600
Feb 202011,818
Jan 202011,013
Dec 201910,611
Oct 20198,587
Aug 201911,394
Jul 20199,373
Jun 201910,732
May 201911,564
Mar 201910,853
Feb 201910,410
Jan 20199,518
Dec 20189,542
Nov 20189,336
Oct 20188,897
Sept 20189,344
Aug 20189,839
Jul 201810,703
Jun 201812,617
May 201814,814
Apr 201814,440
Mar 201813,602
Feb 201813,504
Jan 201814,286

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620