Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (palm) in Gitega

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,974–10,951

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,929–12,623

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,974 and 10,951 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,929 and 12,623 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Gitega: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,974 and 10,951 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,929 and 12,623 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 23,562); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,361–9,802 8,408 6,940–11,003 9,904 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,837–10,135 8,023 6,406–12,749 8,811 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,974–10,951 8,236 6,308–16,848 9,319 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,072–11,693 8,399 6,127–19,365 9,547 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,929–12,623 8,483 5,879–23,562 9,840 –
Price history (85 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,500
Jun 20269,333
May 20269,833
Apr 20268,500
Mar 20269,781
Feb 20269,175
Dec 20258,250
Nov 202510,333
Oct 20258,611
Sept 202510,312
Jul 202510,630
Jun 202510,194
May 20259,810
Apr 202510,700
Mar 20259,043
Feb 20257,336
Jan 20257,081
Dec 20246,072
Nov 20245,656
Oct 20245,624
Sept 20245,175
Aug 20245,628
Jul 20246,517
Jun 20245,850
May 20245,685
Apr 20245,833
Mar 20245,143
Feb 20245,474
Jan 20246,125
Nov 20235,211
Oct 20235,609
Sept 20236,346
Aug 20236,433
Jul 20235,617
Jun 20235,659
May 20235,212
Apr 20234,620
Mar 20234,501
Feb 20234,372
Dec 20224,445
Nov 20224,041
Oct 20223,861
Sept 20224,281
Aug 20224,929
Jun 20224,900
May 20224,545
Apr 20223,767
Mar 20223,400
Feb 20223,823
Jan 20223,500
Oct 20212,750
May 20212,550
Apr 20212,678
Mar 20213,255
Feb 20212,433
Jan 20212,303
Dec 20202,242
Nov 20202,000
Oct 20202,064
Sept 20202,154
Aug 20202,256
Jul 20202,226
Jun 20202,428
Mar 20202,512
Feb 20202,200
Jan 20202,133
Dec 20192,317
Nov 20192,183
Oct 20191,940
Sept 20191,967
Aug 20192,500
Jul 20192,580
Jun 20192,500
May 20192,433
Mar 20192,250
Feb 20192,267
Jan 20192,000
Dec 20182,000
Nov 20181,867
Oct 20181,838
Sept 20182,500
Aug 20183,167
Jul 20183,133
Jun 20183,000
May 20182,633

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-202-62-retail-kg.