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Cassava flour in Gitega

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,125–1,930

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,112–1,999

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,125 and 1,930 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,112 and 1,999 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Gitega: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 16% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,125 and 1,930 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,112 and 1,999 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,5002,0002,500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 2,756); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,117–1,494 1,279 1,020–1,808 1,489 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,105–1,606 1,291 955–2,206 1,416 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,125–1,930 1,315 996–2,382 1,678 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,106–1,929 1,318 998–2,756 1,543 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,112–1,999 1,355 1,035–2,631 1,555 –
Price history (244 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,250
Jun 20261,500
May 20261,483
Apr 20261,600
Mar 20261,472
Feb 20261,488
Dec 20251,100
Nov 20251,150
Oct 20251,286
Sept 20251,194
Jul 20251,465
Jun 20251,564
May 20251,562
Apr 20251,580
Mar 20251,500
Feb 20251,331
Jan 20251,056
Dec 20241,497
Nov 20241,444
Oct 20241,535
Sept 20241,475
Aug 20241,372
Jul 20241,367
Jun 20241,462
May 20241,453
Apr 20241,667
Mar 20241,743
Feb 20241,607
Jan 20241,658
Nov 20231,663
Oct 20231,568
Sept 20231,496
Aug 20231,567
Jul 20231,608
Jun 20231,495
May 20231,716
Apr 20231,907
Mar 20232,010
Feb 20231,747
Dec 20221,352
Nov 20221,267
Oct 20221,089
Sept 2022912
Aug 20221,306
Jun 20221,000
May 20221,000
Apr 20221,000
Mar 2022950
Feb 2022946
Jan 2022953
Oct 2021775
May 2021800
Apr 2021970
Mar 2021859
Feb 2021850
Jan 2021832
Dec 2020803
Nov 2020800
Oct 2020566
Sept 2020591
Aug 2020561
Jul 2020645
Jun 2020622
Mar 2020625
Feb 2020600
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019500
Oct 2019391
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019392
Jun 2019500
May 2019492
Mar 2019511
Feb 2019530
Jan 2019522
Dec 2018569
Nov 2018534
Oct 2018463
Sept 2018461
Aug 2018529
Jul 2018573
Jun 2018673
May 2018752
Apr 2018780
Mar 2018788
Feb 2018829
Jan 2018915
Dec 2017967
Nov 2017993
Oct 20171,040
Sept 20171,057
Aug 20171,050
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,000
May 20171,106
Apr 20171,047
Mar 20171,077
Feb 20171,150
Jan 2017870
Dec 2016870
Nov 2016817
Oct 2016744
Sept 2016673
Aug 2016562
Jul 2016614
Jun 2016659
May 2016758
Apr 2016664
Mar 2016704
Feb 2016713
Jan 2016696
Dec 2015530
Nov 2015480
Oct 2015371
Sept 2015314
Aug 2015391
Jul 2015455
Jun 2015430
May 2015464
Apr 2015433
Mar 2015413
Feb 2015419
Jan 2015400
Dec 2014750Data error
Nov 2014397Data error
Oct 2014742
Sept 2014750
Aug 2014750
Jul 2014755
Jun 2014742
Apr 2014824
Mar 2014826
Feb 2014756
Jan 2014783
Nov 2013600
Oct 2013550
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013700
May 2013600
Apr 2013700
Mar 2013689
Feb 2013713
Jan 2013739
Dec 2012725
Nov 2012678
Oct 2012650
Sept 2012680
Aug 2012672
Jul 2012586
Jun 2012634
May 2012663
Apr 2012534
Mar 2012650
Feb 2012650
Jan 2012525
Dec 2011600
Nov 2011500
Oct 2011462
Sept 2011450
Aug 2011370
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011650
May 2011500
Apr 2011450
Mar 2011613
Feb 2011600
Jan 2011600
Jul 2010400
Jun 2010400
May 2010500
Apr 2010500
Mar 2010471
Feb 2010460
Jan 2010450
May 2009450
Apr 2009455
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009400
May 2008335
Apr 2008330
Mar 2008335
Feb 2008322
Jan 2008325
Dec 2007290
Nov 2007265
Oct 2007310
Sept 2007250
Aug 2007260
Jul 2007260
Jun 2007300
May 2007300
Apr 2007350
Mar 2007350
Feb 2007390
Jan 2007400
Dec 2006400
Nov 2006340
Oct 2006325
Sept 2006350
Aug 2006350
Jul 2006320
Jun 2006330
May 2006380
Apr 2006400
Mar 2006400
Feb 2006320
Jan 2006270
Dec 2005285
Nov 2005268
Oct 2005250
Sept 2005250
Aug 2005300
Jul 2005300
Jun 2005300
May 2005300
Apr 2005300
Mar 2005350
Feb 2005290
Jan 2005300
Dec 2004265
Nov 2004250
Oct 2004190
Sept 2004180
Aug 2004175
Jul 2004165
Jun 2004165
May 2004180
Apr 2004200
Mar 2004150
Feb 2004120
Jan 2004105
Dec 200365
Nov 2003110
Oct 200395
Sept 200395
Aug 2003100
Jul 2003105
Jun 200395
May 2003115
Apr 200395
Mar 2003100
Feb 200385
Jan 2003100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-202-74-retail-kg.