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Maize flour in Gitega

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,970–2,761

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,839–2,884

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,970 and 2,761 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,839 and 2,884 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Gitega: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,970 and 2,761 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,839 and 2,884 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,105); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,891–2,307 2,066 1,726–2,520 2,587 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,854–2,468 2,097 1,598–2,502 2,570 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,970–2,761 2,283 1,663–3,376 3,035 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,941–2,931 2,324 1,570–4,105 3,169 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,839–2,884 2,207 1,512–3,796 2,784 –
Price history (116 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,050
Jun 20261,850
May 20261,933
Apr 20262,000
Mar 20261,716
Feb 20262,140
Dec 20252,300
Nov 20252,033
Oct 20252,061
Sept 20252,100
Jul 20251,965
Jun 20251,933
May 20251,826
Apr 20251,743
Mar 20252,010
Feb 20252,329
Jan 20252,768
Dec 20243,016
Nov 20242,794
Oct 20242,261
Sept 20242,450
Aug 20242,118
Jul 20241,800
Jun 20242,038
May 20241,794
Apr 20241,667
Mar 20241,824
Feb 20242,063
Jan 20242,283
Nov 20232,100
Oct 20232,029
Sept 20232,327
Aug 20232,067
Jul 20232,167
Jun 20232,000
May 20231,904
Apr 20232,095
Mar 20232,104
Feb 20232,291
Dec 20222,415
Nov 20222,445
Oct 20221,967
Sept 20221,775
Aug 20221,768
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,299
Apr 20221,133
Mar 20221,150
Feb 20221,238
Jan 20221,353
Oct 20211,200
May 2021875
Apr 2021923
Mar 2021910
Feb 20211,067
Jan 20211,207
Dec 20201,158
Nov 20201,333
Oct 2020964
Sept 2020941
Aug 2020851
Jul 2020818
Jun 2020789
Mar 2020750
Feb 2020800
Jan 20201,150
Dec 20191,400
Oct 20191,150
Aug 20191,017
Jul 20191,025
Jun 2019650
May 2019658
Mar 2019633
Feb 2019767
Jan 20191,000
Dec 2018975
Nov 2018817
Oct 2018712
Sept 2018700
Aug 2018667
Jul 2018683
Jun 2018667
May 2018667
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,167
Mar 20171,192
Feb 20171,400
Dec 20161,350
Nov 20161,333
Oct 20161,200
Sept 2016989
Aug 2016975
Jul 2016820
Jun 2016729
May 2016688
Apr 2016683
Mar 2016712
Feb 2016825
Jan 20161,000
Dec 20151,050
Nov 20151,050
Oct 2015833
Sept 2015692
Aug 2015725
Jul 2015643
Jun 2015625
May 2015530
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015483
Feb 2015558
Jan 2015733
Dec 2014700
Nov 2014700
Oct 2014700
Sept 2014733

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-202-76-retail-kg.