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Oil (vegetable) in Gitega

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,636–19,430

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,002–21,011

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,636 and 19,430 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,002 and 21,011 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Gitega: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,636 and 19,430 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,002 and 21,011 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 29,515); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,607–17,598 15,839 13,410–17,844 19,221 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,465–18,510 16,002 13,343–19,157 19,608 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,636–19,430 15,766 12,660–23,757 18,627 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,649–19,695 16,233 12,836–20,103 20,031 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,002–21,011 15,637 12,199–29,515 18,892 –
Price history (85 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,000
Jun 202615,833
May 202616,833
Apr 202616,000
Mar 202615,750
Feb 202615,700
Dec 202516,500
Nov 202516,500
Oct 202517,417
Sept 202517,562
Jul 202517,850
Jun 202518,028
May 202517,347
Apr 202517,800
Mar 202516,133
Feb 202516,310
Jan 202514,722
Dec 202416,402
Nov 202413,938
Oct 202413,159
Sept 202414,000
Aug 202413,462
Jul 202412,167
Jun 202411,344
May 202410,104
Apr 20249,500
Mar 20249,882
Feb 20249,463
Jan 202411,500
Nov 20239,513
Oct 202310,015
Sept 20239,615
Aug 202310,333
Jul 20239,833
Jun 202311,045
May 202310,696
Apr 20239,542
Mar 20239,569
Feb 202310,078
Dec 20229,424
Nov 20229,480
Oct 20229,924
Sept 20229,781
Aug 202210,452
Jun 20229,000
May 20229,167
Apr 20228,333
Mar 20228,000
Feb 20228,231
Jan 20228,500
Oct 20219,000
May 20217,500
Apr 20216,239
Mar 20215,706
Feb 20216,250
Jan 20215,608
Dec 20205,970
Nov 20205,667
Oct 20205,682
Sept 20205,176
Aug 20205,198
Jul 20205,539
Jun 20205,583
Mar 20205,000
Feb 20205,625
Jan 20204,000
Dec 20195,083
Nov 20194,583
Oct 20195,080
Sept 20195,050
Aug 20194,000
Jul 20194,500
Jun 20194,000
May 20195,000
Mar 20194,967
Feb 20194,750
Jan 20194,875
Dec 20185,000
Nov 20185,000
Oct 20185,125
Sept 20185,550
Aug 20184,667
Jul 20184,883
Jun 20185,417
May 20185,667

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-202-96-retail-kg.