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Oil (palm) in Kirundo

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,344–11,844

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,101–12,595

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,344 and 11,844 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,101 and 12,595 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kirundo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,344 and 11,844 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,101 and 12,595 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 16,071); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,858–11,287 9,828 8,340–11,540 11,963 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,418–11,145 9,354 7,495–14,206 10,834 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,344–11,844 9,439 7,289–15,986 10,687 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,176–11,976 9,341 7,370–14,671 10,565 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,101–12,595 9,579 6,925–16,071 11,282 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,833
Jun 202610,111
May 202610,486
Apr 202610,000
Mar 20269,792
Feb 202610,308
Jan 202610,515
Dec 202510,147
Nov 202510,833
Oct 202511,417
Sept 202511,239
Aug 20259,667
Jul 202512,000
Jun 202511,844
May 202511,167
Apr 202511,812
Mar 202511,021
Feb 20258,929
Jan 20257,934
Dec 20246,556
Nov 20246,212
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20246,161
Aug 20247,304
Jul 20246,500
Jun 20246,870
May 20246,329
Apr 20246,000
Mar 20246,000
Feb 20246,000
Jan 20246,000
Dec 20236,125
Nov 20236,000
Oct 20235,625
Sept 20236,588
Aug 20236,250
Jul 20235,722
Jun 20235,530
May 20235,371
Apr 20235,352
Mar 20234,866
Feb 20234,719
Dec 20224,217
Nov 20224,224
Oct 20224,225
Sept 20224,591
Aug 20224,883
Jul 20225,100
Jun 20224,699
May 20224,284
Apr 20224,231
Mar 20223,667
Feb 20223,625
Jan 20223,833
Oct 20213,800
May 20212,933
Apr 20212,695
Mar 20212,667
Feb 20212,467
Jan 20212,496
Dec 20202,223
Nov 20202,295
Sept 20203,005
Aug 20202,647
Jul 20202,506
Jun 20202,550
Mar 20202,412
Feb 20202,267
Jan 20202,233
Dec 20192,200
Nov 20192,183
Oct 20192,100
Sept 20192,633
Aug 20192,717
Jul 20192,667
Jun 20192,750
May 20192,733
Mar 20192,371
Feb 20192,383
Jan 20192,033
Dec 20182,033
Nov 20182,167
Oct 20181,950
Sept 20182,460
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20182,950
Jun 20183,050
May 20182,733

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-203-62-retail-kg.