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Cassava flour in Kirundo

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,262–2,080

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,252–2,375

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,262 and 2,080 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,252 and 2,375 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kirundo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,262 and 2,080 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,252 and 2,375 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,160); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,306–1,747 1,537 1,167–1,987 1,455 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,243–1,840 1,516 1,015–2,467 1,377 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,262–2,080 1,489 1,027–3,051 1,657 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,233–2,159 1,519 1,085–3,230 1,582 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,252–2,375 1,533 1,115–4,160 1,596 –
Price history (250 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,625
Jun 20261,822
May 20261,686
Apr 20261,917
Mar 20261,698
Feb 20261,621
Jan 20261,330
Dec 20251,225
Nov 20251,322
Oct 20251,208
Sept 20251,165
Aug 20251,833
Jul 20251,500
Jun 20251,864
May 20251,681
Apr 20251,796
Mar 20251,275
Feb 20251,126
Jan 20251,265
Dec 20241,298
Nov 20241,258
Oct 20241,200
Sept 20241,053
Aug 20241,154
Jul 20241,500
Jun 20241,748
May 20241,900
Apr 20241,800
Mar 20241,765
Feb 20241,800
Jan 20241,950
Dec 20231,800
Nov 20231,667
Oct 20231,531
Sept 20231,785
Aug 20231,600
Jul 20231,806
Jun 20231,842
May 20231,937
Apr 20232,000
Mar 20231,831
Feb 20231,569
Dec 20221,189
Nov 20221,212
Oct 20221,080
Sept 20221,020
Aug 20221,000
Jul 20221,050
Jun 20221,222
May 20221,198
Apr 20221,200
Mar 20221,100
Feb 20221,125
Jan 20221,067
Oct 2021733
May 20211,067
Apr 2021999
Mar 2021983
Feb 20211,000
Jan 2021931
Dec 2020900
Nov 2020916
Sept 2020735
Aug 2020794
Jul 2020788
Jun 2020833
Mar 2020756
Feb 2020683
Jan 2020575
Dec 2019600
Oct 2019465
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019520
Jun 2019600
May 2019550
Mar 2019524
Feb 2019518
Jan 2019513
Dec 2018504
Nov 2018534
Oct 2018458
Sept 2018467
Aug 2018588
Jul 2018695
Jun 2018739
May 2018815
Apr 2018850
Mar 2018833
Feb 2018886
Jan 2018995
Dec 20171,033
Nov 20171,150
Oct 20171,181
Sept 20171,185
Aug 20171,271
Jul 20171,167
Jun 20171,294
May 20171,372
Apr 20171,400
Mar 20171,400
Feb 20171,300
Jan 20171,167
Dec 20161,167
Nov 2016950
Oct 2016786
Sept 2016700
Aug 2016700
Jul 2016720
Jun 2016800
May 2016800
Apr 2016800
Mar 2016800
Feb 2016800
Jan 2016740
Dec 2015620
Nov 2015575
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015600
Jun 2015600
May 2015600
Apr 2015575
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Dec 2014677
Nov 2014454
Oct 2014723
Sept 2014712
Aug 2014712
Jul 2014683
Jun 2014700
Apr 2014643
Mar 2014696
Feb 2014650
Jan 2014650
Nov 2013600
Oct 2013600
Sept 2013600
Aug 2013600
Jul 2013700
Jun 2013700
May 2013700
Apr 2013711
Mar 2013673
Feb 2013600
Jan 2013600
Dec 2012600
Nov 2012600
Oct 2012668
Sept 2012700
Aug 2012713
Jul 2012720
Jun 2012718
May 2012723
Apr 2012600
Mar 2012600
Feb 2012500
Jan 2012500
Dec 2011500
Nov 2011500
Oct 2011400
Sept 2011400
Aug 2011500
Jul 2011488
Mar 2011533
Feb 2011500
Jan 2011500
Dec 2010400
Nov 2010386
Oct 2010400
Sept 2010422
Aug 2010400
Jul 2010400
Jun 2010531
May 2010800
Apr 2010500
Mar 2010531
Feb 2010520
Jan 2010500
May 2009490
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
May 2008420
Apr 2008420
Mar 2008400
Feb 2008300
Jan 2008275
Dec 2007250
Nov 2007300
Oct 2007250
Sept 2007400
Aug 2007500
Jul 2007300
Jun 2007410
May 2007500
Apr 2007550
Mar 2007450
Feb 2007400
Jan 2007400
Dec 2006400
Nov 2006400
Oct 2006388
Sept 2006400
Aug 2006405
Jul 2006405
Jun 2006405
May 2006400
Apr 2006400
Mar 2006400
Feb 2006400
Jan 2006350
Dec 2005350
Nov 2005315
Oct 2005300
Sept 2005330
Aug 2005450
Jul 2005400
Jun 2005400
May 2005400
Apr 2005400
Mar 2005400
Feb 2005400
Jan 2005400
Dec 2004425
Nov 2004355
Oct 2004350
Sept 2004325
Aug 2004315
Jul 2004300
Jun 2004290
May 2004270
Apr 2004260
Mar 2004250
Feb 2004250
Jan 2004200
Dec 2003190
Nov 2003165
Oct 2003120
Sept 2003110
Aug 2003110
Jul 2003110
Jun 2003100
May 2003100
Apr 2003100
Mar 2003100
Feb 200380
Jan 200375

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-203-74-retail-kg.