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Maize flour in Kirundo

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,961–2,863

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,861–2,937

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 25% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,961 and 2,863 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,861 and 2,937 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Kirundo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 25% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,961 and 2,863 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,861 and 2,937 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,090); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,899–2,361 2,116 1,735–2,770 2,569 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,897–2,558 2,215 1,638–3,200 2,686 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,961–2,863 2,363 1,590–3,791 3,108 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,929–2,930 2,366 1,591–4,090 3,163 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,861–2,937 2,274 1,496–3,944 2,792 –
Price history (115 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,142
Jun 20261,967
May 20261,708
Apr 20261,750
Mar 20261,662
Feb 20261,910
Jan 20262,394
Dec 20252,198
Nov 20252,223
Oct 20252,090
Sept 20252,154
Aug 20252,267
Jul 20252,500
Jun 20251,936
May 20251,625
Apr 20251,958
Mar 20251,733
Feb 20252,164
Jan 20253,018
Dec 20242,967
Nov 20242,446
Oct 20242,450
Sept 20242,093
Aug 20241,892
Jul 20241,800
Jun 20241,661
May 20241,637
Apr 20241,500
Mar 20241,600
Feb 20241,748
Jan 20242,000
Dec 20232,375
Nov 20232,300
Oct 20232,062
Sept 20232,308
Aug 20231,850
Jul 20231,894
Jun 20231,806
May 20231,824
Apr 20231,981
Mar 20232,000
Feb 20231,873
Dec 20222,000
Nov 20222,247
Oct 20221,860
Sept 20221,594
Aug 20221,325
Jul 20221,300
Jun 20221,282
May 20221,204
Apr 20221,146
Mar 20221,100
Feb 20221,125
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,133
May 2021867
Apr 2021879
Mar 20211,033
Feb 20211,100
Jan 20211,175
Dec 20201,242
Nov 20201,236
Sept 2020939
Aug 2020926
Jul 2020851
Jun 2020833
Mar 2020811
Feb 2020933
Jan 20201,275
Dec 20191,200
Oct 20191,022
Aug 2019767
Jul 2019831
Jun 2019700
May 2019650
Mar 2019700
Feb 2019930
Jan 2019800
Dec 2018817
Nov 2018800
Oct 2018662
Sept 2018620
Aug 2018660
Jul 2018667
Jun 2018625
May 2018633
Apr 20171,350
Mar 20171,300
Dec 20161,300
Nov 20161,222
Oct 20161,000
Sept 2016928
Aug 2016900
Jul 2016793
Jun 2016725
May 2016750
Apr 2016847
Mar 2016900
Feb 2016971
Jan 20161,000
Dec 20151,000
Nov 2015875
Oct 2015697
Sept 2015600
Aug 2015600
Jul 2015600
Jun 2015600
May 2015600
Apr 2015600
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015529
Jan 2015687
Dec 2014675
Nov 2014700
Oct 2014700

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-203-76-retail-kg.