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Oil (vegetable) in Kirundo

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,941–20,721

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,437–22,113

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,941 and 20,721 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,437 and 22,113 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kirundo: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,941 and 20,721 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,437 and 22,113 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 28,461); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 15,174–18,840 16,710 14,584–20,138 18,478 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,988–19,882 16,736 14,262–23,001 19,857 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,941–20,721 16,639 14,244–27,197 18,573 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,900–20,806 16,547 13,553–23,656 19,010 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,437–22,113 16,663 13,248–28,461 19,707 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202617,333
Jun 202616,000
May 202617,049
Apr 202617,000
Mar 202614,729
Feb 202616,897
Jan 202616,091
Dec 202517,314
Nov 202517,594
Oct 202518,000
Sept 202516,783
Aug 202517,667
Jul 202515,000
Jun 202517,811
May 202517,646
Apr 202516,917
Mar 202518,146
Feb 202517,571
Jan 202515,246
Dec 202413,422
Nov 202413,096
Oct 202412,000
Sept 202412,967
Aug 202413,173
Jul 202411,000
Jun 202411,500
May 202410,026
Apr 20249,000
Mar 20249,075
Feb 20249,091
Jan 202410,000
Dec 20239,250
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,062
Sept 20239,412
Aug 20239,750
Jul 20239,167
Jun 20239,106
May 20239,069
Apr 20239,094
Mar 20238,839
Feb 20239,802
Dec 20229,042
Nov 20229,162
Oct 20229,938
Sept 20229,007
Aug 20229,000
Jul 20228,625
Jun 20228,597
May 20227,196
Apr 20228,096
Mar 20228,333
Feb 20228,750
Jan 20228,333
Oct 20219,100
May 20215,667
Apr 20215,934
Mar 20215,833
Feb 20215,550
Jan 20215,625
Dec 20205,117
Nov 20204,714
Sept 20204,500
Aug 20204,706
Jul 20204,899
Jun 20204,833
Mar 20204,534
Feb 20203,750
Jan 20204,000
Dec 20194,300
Nov 20194,133
Oct 20194,233
Sept 20194,067
Aug 20194,117
Jul 20194,417
Jun 20194,250
May 20194,583
Mar 20194,329
Feb 20194,800
Jan 20194,500
Dec 20184,583
Nov 20184,500
Oct 20184,325
Sept 20184,760
Aug 20184,560
Jul 20184,367
Jun 20185,000
May 20185,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-203-96-retail-kg.