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Oil (palm) in Muyinga

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,479–11,676

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,168–12,315

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,479 and 11,676 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,168 and 12,315 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Muyinga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,479 and 11,676 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,168 and 12,315 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 9,025–11,489 10,307 8,598–11,985 11,542 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,605–11,744 10,060 8,278–11,749 10,994 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,479–11,676 9,568 7,606–12,879 10,553 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,432–11,857 9,559 7,646–12,252 10,463 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,168–12,315 9,797 7,127–13,895 10,976 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,208
Jun 202610,333
May 202611,319
Apr 202611,083
Mar 202611,000
Feb 202610,583
Jan 202611,657
Dec 202511,021
Nov 202510,875
Oct 202511,333
Sept 202511,778
Aug 202511,000
Jul 202512,410
Jun 202511,897
May 202510,750
Apr 202511,125
Mar 20258,972
Feb 20257,938
Jan 20256,487
Dec 20246,433
Nov 20245,941
Oct 20246,024
Sept 20245,903
Aug 20246,522
Jul 20246,069
Jun 20246,167
May 20246,017
Apr 20245,750
Mar 20245,722
Feb 20245,778
Jan 20245,500
Dec 20235,500
Nov 20235,855
Oct 20235,775
Sept 20236,731
Aug 20235,938
Jul 20235,988
Jun 20235,444
May 20235,469
Apr 20234,696
Mar 20234,854
Feb 20234,125
Dec 20224,403
Nov 20224,413
Oct 20224,515
Sept 20224,208
Aug 20224,500
May 20224,467
Apr 20224,000
Mar 20223,800
Feb 20224,500
Jan 20224,000
Oct 20214,000
May 20213,000
Apr 20213,000
Mar 20212,433
Feb 20212,300
Jan 20212,350
Dec 20202,200
Nov 20202,650
Oct 20202,691
Sept 20202,171
Aug 20202,197
Jul 20202,862
Jun 20202,450
Mar 20202,300
Feb 20202,150
Jan 20202,300
Dec 20192,325
Nov 20192,200
Oct 20192,520
Sept 20192,933
Aug 20192,633
Jul 20193,043
Jun 20192,800
May 20192,425
Mar 20192,040
Feb 20192,150
Jan 20192,640
Dec 20182,383
Nov 20182,283
Oct 20182,367
Sept 20183,317
Aug 20183,283
Jul 20183,167
Jun 20183,214
May 20182,900
Feb 20182,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-204-62-retail-kg.