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Cassava flour in Muyinga

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,332–2,287

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,319–2,456

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,332 and 2,287 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,319 and 2,456 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Muyinga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,332 and 2,287 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,319 and 2,456 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,795); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,442–1,921 1,696 1,237–2,059 1,916 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,307–2,025 1,653 1,099–2,481 1,667 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,332–2,287 1,659 1,097–3,139 1,918 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,294–2,312 1,647 1,102–3,431 1,827 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,319–2,456 1,666 1,096–3,795 1,806 –
Price history (216 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,708
Jun 20261,683
May 20261,825
Apr 20261,983
Mar 20261,394
Feb 20261,417
Jan 20261,315
Dec 20251,304
Nov 20251,562
Oct 20251,900
Sept 20251,833
Aug 20252,000
Jul 20251,874
Jun 20251,984
May 20251,283
Apr 20251,125
Mar 20251,506
Feb 20251,505
Jan 20251,508
Dec 20241,578
Nov 20241,691
Oct 20241,657
Sept 20241,572
Aug 20241,569
Jul 20241,714
Jun 20241,767
May 20241,800
Apr 20241,750
Mar 20241,844
Feb 20241,844
Jan 20241,733
Dec 20231,900
Nov 20231,763
Oct 20231,661
Sept 20231,813
Aug 20231,740
Jul 20231,802
Jun 20232,022
May 20232,100
Apr 20232,130
Mar 20231,875
Feb 20231,475
Dec 20221,258
Nov 20221,239
Oct 20221,188
Sept 20221,142
Aug 20221,150
May 20221,000
Apr 20221,000
Mar 20221,050
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,000
Oct 20211,000
May 20211,000
Apr 20211,000
Mar 20211,000
Feb 2021900
Jan 2021900
Dec 20201,000
Nov 2020750
Oct 2020564
Sept 2020747
Aug 2020603
Jul 2020787
Jun 2020650
Mar 2020600
Feb 2020600
Jan 2020571
Dec 2019500
Oct 2019417
Aug 2019444
Jul 2019480
Jun 2019400
May 2019400
Mar 2019420
Feb 2019575
Jan 2019440
Dec 2018392
Nov 2018417
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018442
Aug 2018475
Jul 2018583
Jun 2018629
May 2018633
Feb 2018800
Aug 20171,067
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,317
Feb 20171,214
Jan 20171,000
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016940
Oct 2016778
Sept 2016856
Aug 2016967
Jul 2016933
Jun 2016933
May 2016934
Apr 2016900
Mar 2016960
Feb 2016979
Jan 2016867
Dec 2015744
Nov 2015695
Oct 2015608
Sept 2015525
Aug 2015658
Jul 2015638
Jun 2015625
May 2015613
Apr 2015592
Mar 2015583
Feb 2015588
Jan 2015575
Dec 2014738
Nov 2014800
Oct 2014744
Sept 2014750
Aug 2014744
Jul 2014731
Jun 2014713
Apr 2014640
Mar 2014627
Feb 2014633
Jan 2014600
Nov 2013600
Oct 2013700
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013600
May 2013800
Apr 2013600
Mar 2013600
Feb 2013600
Jan 2013650
Dec 2012647
Nov 2012684
Oct 2012693
Sept 2012650
Aug 2012636
Jul 2012650
Jun 2012600
May 2012650
Apr 2012648
Jul 2010500
Mar 2010522
Feb 2010500
Jan 2010470
Apr 2009400
Feb 2009400
May 2008360
Apr 2008350
Mar 2008350
Feb 2008350
Jan 2008325
Dec 2007312
Nov 2007312
Oct 2007280
Sept 2007320
Aug 2007380
Jul 2007300
Jun 2007350
May 2007340
Apr 2007340
Mar 2007340
Feb 2007350
Jan 2007350
Dec 2006350
Nov 2006350
Oct 2006350
Sept 2006350
Aug 2006318
Jul 2006350
Jun 2006350
Apr 2006343
Jan 2006340
Dec 2005268
Nov 2005300
Oct 2005350
Sept 2005350
Aug 2005350
Jul 2005400
Jun 2005400
May 2005350
Apr 2005350
Mar 2005350
Feb 2005400
Jan 2005345
Dec 2004320
Nov 2004310
Oct 2004225
Sept 2004220
Aug 2004215
Jul 2004200
Jun 2004200
May 2004220
Apr 2004225
Mar 2004220
Feb 2004200
Jan 2004200
Dec 2003155
Nov 2003135
Oct 2003100
Sept 2003105
Aug 2003105
Jul 2003120
Jun 2003110
May 2003100
Apr 200380
Mar 200380
Feb 200375
Jan 200380

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-204-74-retail-kg.