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Maize flour in Muyinga

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,808–2,625

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,724–2,928

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,808 and 2,625 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,724 and 2,928 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Muyinga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,808 and 2,625 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,724 and 2,928 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,322); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,758–2,150 1,926 1,646–2,638 2,435 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,724–2,331 1,938 1,521–2,983 2,367 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,808–2,625 2,024 1,546–3,653 2,619 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,804–2,821 2,105 1,557–4,851 2,730 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,724–2,928 2,046 1,498–5,322 2,538 –
Price history (117 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,883
Jun 20261,533
May 20261,805
Apr 20261,692
Mar 20261,783
Feb 20262,225
Jan 20262,215
Dec 20252,019
Nov 20252,100
Oct 20252,117
Sept 20251,978
Aug 20252,000
Jul 20252,015
Jun 20251,880
May 20251,733
Apr 20251,600
Mar 20252,022
Feb 20252,374
Jan 20252,658
Dec 20242,750
Nov 20242,466
Oct 20242,090
Sept 20242,109
Aug 20241,903
Jul 20241,776
Jun 20241,683
May 20241,750
Apr 20241,750
Mar 20241,856
Feb 20241,789
Jan 20242,200
Dec 20232,400
Nov 20232,037
Oct 20232,167
Sept 20232,337
Aug 20232,028
Jul 20231,980
Jun 20231,889
May 20231,748
Apr 20231,839
Mar 20232,212
Feb 20232,219
Dec 20222,233
Nov 20221,933
Oct 20221,782
Sept 20221,708
Aug 20221,250
May 20221,000
Apr 20221,000
Mar 20221,000
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,275
May 20211,000
Apr 20211,000
Mar 2021735
Feb 2021950
Jan 20211,075
Dec 20201,100
Nov 2020825
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020865
Aug 2020862
Jul 2020842
Jun 2020775
Mar 2020667
Feb 2020875
Jan 20201,221
Dec 20191,275
Oct 20191,038
Aug 2019800
Jul 20191,017
Jun 2019800
May 2019700
Mar 2019800
Feb 2019917
Jan 2019800
Dec 2018733
Nov 2018742
Oct 2018642
Sept 2018608
Aug 2018650
Jul 2018600
Jun 2018593
May 2018625
Feb 2018800
Aug 20171,272
Jul 20171,300
Jun 20171,267
May 20171,217
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,200
Nov 20161,293
Oct 20161,083
Sept 20161,106
Aug 20161,175
Jul 20161,183
Jun 20161,122
May 2016984
Apr 2016850
Mar 20161,133
Feb 20161,046
Jan 20161,062
Dec 2015987
Nov 2015838
Oct 2015675
Sept 2015600
Aug 2015583
Jul 2015538
Jun 2015480
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015744
Feb 2015550
Jan 2015650
Dec 2014630
Oct 2014550

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-204-76-retail-kg.