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Oil (vegetable) in Muyinga

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

15,020–20,838

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,353–22,460

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 15,020 and 20,838 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,353 and 22,460 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Muyinga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 15,020 and 20,838 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,353 and 22,460 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 30,029); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 15,188–19,125 17,131 13,828–20,211 20,364 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,919–20,015 17,267 13,684–24,613 20,608 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 15,020–20,838 16,977 13,366–24,691 20,540 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,703–21,992 17,187 13,857–27,138 21,071 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,353–22,460 17,089 12,941–30,029 20,666 –
Price history (88 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202617,042
Jun 202615,250
May 202617,569
Apr 202617,583
Mar 202618,722
Feb 202617,083
Jan 202616,920
Dec 202518,688
Nov 202518,500
Oct 202519,333
Sept 202518,444
Aug 202520,500
Jul 202520,103
Jun 202520,920
May 202519,667
Apr 202521,750
Mar 202518,000
Feb 202518,406
Jan 202515,263
Dec 202414,778
Nov 202414,485
Oct 202414,804
Sept 202413,500
Aug 202413,257
Jul 202411,382
Jun 202412,167
May 202410,667
Apr 20249,500
Mar 202410,111
Feb 20249,222
Jan 20249,333
Dec 202312,000
Nov 20239,184
Oct 20239,314
Sept 202310,017
Aug 20239,775
Jul 20239,250
Jun 202310,889
May 20238,385
Apr 20239,913
Mar 20239,510
Feb 20239,000
Dec 20228,611
Nov 20228,826
Oct 20228,912
Sept 20228,583
Aug 20229,000
May 20228,067
Apr 20229,000
Mar 20228,500
Feb 20227,500
Jan 20227,000
Oct 20217,125
May 20214,500
Apr 20214,500
Mar 20214,500
Feb 20214,875
Jan 20215,250
Dec 20204,500
Nov 20205,000
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20204,588
Aug 20203,219
Jul 20204,548
Jun 20204,975
Mar 20204,667
Feb 20204,750
Jan 20204,750
Dec 20194,500
Nov 20194,375
Oct 20194,300
Sept 20194,333
Aug 20194,333
Jul 20194,714
Jun 20194,500
May 20194,625
Mar 20194,500
Feb 20194,717
Jan 20194,700
Dec 20184,833
Nov 20184,917
Oct 20184,750
Sept 20185,167
Aug 20184,583
Jul 20184,750
Jun 20184,571
May 20184,667
Feb 20183,500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-204-96-retail-kg.