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Food basket in Muyinga

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

27,780–40,540

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,509–43,826

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 32,456 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,780 and 40,540 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,509 and 43,826 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Muyinga: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 32,456 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 27,780 and 40,540 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,509 and 43,826 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 60,681); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 29,132–35,813 32,386 26,911–37,960
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 27,724–37,244 32,078 24,884–42,096
Nov 2026
Next month		 27,780–40,540 32,240 25,318–49,132
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 27,520–41,631 32,177 25,208–52,840
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,509–43,826 32,616 24,899–60,681
Cost history (86 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202632,456
Jun 202632,055
May 202637,019
Apr 202639,472
Mar 202629,573
Feb 202628,953
Jan 202628,445
Dec 202527,754
Nov 202530,641
Oct 202535,120
Sept 202534,507
Aug 202536,090
Jul 202535,555
Jun 202536,516
May 202527,317
Apr 202526,351
Mar 202529,908
Feb 202528,522
Jan 202527,852
Dec 202429,772
Nov 202430,278
Oct 202429,297
Sept 202428,071
Aug 202427,946
Jul 202428,952
Jun 202429,745
May 202429,802
Apr 202429,738
Mar 202430,582
Feb 202430,580
Jan 202429,095
Dec 202331,545
Nov 202329,599
Oct 202328,668
Sept 202330,982
Aug 202329,148
Jul 202329,661
Jun 202331,583
May 202333,863
Apr 202334,917
Mar 202331,328
Feb 202325,159
Dec 202221,698
Nov 202221,491
Oct 202220,349
Sept 202219,304
Aug 202219,335
May 202217,962
Apr 202217,640
Mar 202217,202
Feb 202216,905
Jan 202216,560
Oct 202116,650
May 202115,510
Apr 202115,930
Mar 202116,019
Feb 202114,727
Jan 202114,716
Dec 202015,858
Nov 202013,528
Oct 202011,140
Sept 202012,686
Aug 202011,088
Jul 202013,320
Jun 202011,290
Mar 202010,947
Feb 202010,664
Jan 202010,300
Dec 20199,629
Oct 20198,546
Aug 20198,764
Jul 20199,660
Jun 20197,992
May 20198,453
Mar 20198,248
Feb 201910,318
Jan 20198,776
Dec 20188,535
Nov 20188,406
Oct 20187,813
Sept 20189,224
Aug 20189,450
Jul 201810,625
Jun 201811,226
May 201811,101
Feb 201812,420

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620