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Oil (palm) in Ruyigi

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,246–11,134

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,059–11,697

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,246 and 11,134 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,059 and 11,697 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Ruyigi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,246 and 11,134 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,059 and 11,697 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,579–10,187 8,765 7,188–10,853 10,290 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,245–10,882 8,775 6,785–13,153 10,410 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,246–11,134 8,705 6,337–14,774 9,529 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,230–11,350 8,707 6,404–14,815 9,556 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,059–11,697 8,828 6,490–16,286 9,754 –
Price history (82 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,833
Jun 20269,333
May 20269,172
Apr 20269,000
Mar 202613,943
Feb 20268,762
Jan 20268,958
Dec 20259,000
Nov 20258,469
Oct 202510,417
Sept 202510,813
Aug 202511,333
Jul 202510,641
Jun 20259,958
May 20259,659
Apr 20259,580
Mar 202510,875
Feb 20258,560
Jan 20257,208
Dec 20246,570
Nov 20245,878
Oct 20245,909
Sept 20246,122
Aug 20246,667
Jul 20246,944
Jun 20246,260
May 20246,333
Apr 20245,833
Mar 20245,667
Feb 20245,678
Jan 20245,671
Dec 20235,500
Nov 20235,575
Oct 20235,967
Sept 20236,188
Aug 20236,345
Jul 20235,783
Jun 20235,485
May 20235,138
Apr 20235,258
Mar 20235,309
Feb 20235,153
Jan 20234,300
Dec 20225,106
Nov 20224,927
Oct 20224,969
Sept 20225,156
Aug 20225,427
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,333
Mar 20224,000
Feb 20224,000
Jan 20224,000
Mar 20213,000
Feb 20212,500
Jan 20212,710
Dec 20202,500
Nov 20202,800
Sept 20202,800
Aug 20202,800
Jul 20202,882
Jun 20202,956
Mar 20202,617
Feb 20202,800
Dec 20192,800
Nov 20192,640
Sept 20192,500
Aug 20193,000
Jul 20193,000
Jun 20193,000
May 20193,300
Mar 20192,717
Feb 20192,283
Jan 20192,383
Dec 20182,100
Nov 20182,367
Oct 20182,450
Sept 20182,771
Aug 20183,440
Jul 20183,883
Jun 20183,733
May 20182,929

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-205-62-retail-kg.