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Cassava flour in Ruyigi

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,292–1,963

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,348–2,372

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,292 and 1,963 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,348 and 2,372 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Ruyigi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,292 and 1,963 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,348 and 2,372 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,660); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,337–1,700 1,527 1,206–1,764 1,833 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,318–1,855 1,535 1,137–1,984 1,819 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,292–1,963 1,517 1,148–2,286 1,923 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,289–2,170 1,526 1,126–3,031 1,923 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,348–2,372 1,581 1,234–3,660 1,979 –
Price history (225 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,500
Jun 20261,500
May 20261,700
Apr 20261,700
Mar 20261,802
Feb 20261,593
Jan 20261,475
Dec 20251,500
Nov 20251,405
Oct 20251,500
Sept 20251,500
Aug 20251,517
Jul 20251,518
Jun 20251,504
May 20251,559
Apr 20251,615
Mar 20251,555
Feb 20251,510
Jan 20251,528
Dec 20241,500
Nov 20241,500
Oct 20242,136
Sept 20241,504
Aug 20241,567
Jul 20241,644
Jun 20241,735
May 20241,653
Apr 20241,767
Mar 20241,751
Feb 20241,847
Jan 20242,000
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20231,900
Oct 20231,867
Sept 20231,869
Aug 20231,842
Jul 20231,817
Jun 20231,879
May 20231,871
Apr 20231,948
Mar 20232,030
Feb 20231,781
Jan 20231,750
Dec 20221,400
Nov 20221,327
Oct 20221,088
Sept 20221,025
Aug 20221,071
May 20221,018
Apr 20221,033
Mar 20221,025
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,000
Mar 2021800
Feb 20211,000
Jan 2021970
Dec 2020836
Nov 2020750
Sept 2020600
Aug 2020600
Jul 2020600
Jun 2020600
Mar 2020550
Feb 2020650
Jan 2020508
Dec 2019538
Oct 2019412
Aug 2019470
Jul 2019466
Jun 2019475
May 2019550
Mar 2019493
Feb 2019566
Jan 2019531
Dec 2018521
Nov 2018489
Oct 2018485
Sept 2018496
Aug 2018544
Jul 2018573
Jun 2018647
May 2018650
Apr 2018725
Mar 2018644
Feb 2018746
Jan 2018838
Dec 2017855
Nov 2017890
Oct 2017898
Sept 20171,000
Aug 20171,013
Jul 20171,000
Jun 20171,000
May 20171,000
Apr 20171,000
Mar 20171,100
Feb 20171,167
Jan 20171,067
Dec 20161,005
Nov 2016838
Oct 2016712
Sept 2016771
Aug 2016775
Jul 2016725
Jun 2016690
May 2016663
Apr 2016630
Mar 2016663
Feb 2016737
Jan 2016713
Dec 2015624
Nov 2015504
Oct 2015404
Sept 2015400
Aug 2015388
Jul 2015425
Jun 2015425
May 2015433
Apr 2015433
Mar 2015433
Feb 2015421
Jan 2015463
Dec 2014656
Nov 2014550
Oct 2014730
Sept 2014750
Aug 2014728
Jul 2014713
Jun 2014691
Apr 2014618
Mar 2014592
Feb 2014600
Jan 2014620
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013550
Sept 2013550
Aug 2013550
Jul 2013450
Jun 2013671
May 2013700
Apr 2013700
Mar 2013706
Feb 2013713
Jan 2013695
Dec 2012678
Nov 2012650
Oct 2012634
Sept 2012625
Aug 2012500
Jul 2012500
Jun 2012550
May 2012480
Apr 2012520
May 2010360
Apr 2010370
Mar 2010380
Feb 2010400
May 2009500
Apr 2009525
Mar 2009525
Feb 2009519
May 2008480
Apr 2008475
Mar 2008468
Feb 2008465
Jan 2008462
Dec 2007456
Nov 2007456
Oct 2007456
Sept 2007315
Aug 2007441
Jul 2007431
Jun 2007450
May 2007450
Apr 2007450
Mar 2007450
Feb 2007460
Jan 2007478
Dec 2006450
Nov 2006415
Oct 2006404
Sept 2006400
Aug 2006400
Jul 2006400
Jun 2006355
Apr 2006360
Mar 2006400
Feb 2006475
Jan 2006340
Dec 2005326
Nov 2005325
Oct 2005310
Sept 2005300
Aug 2005303
Jul 2005300
Jun 2005310
May 2005300
Apr 2005300
Mar 2005295
Feb 2005300
Jan 2005300
Dec 2004275
Nov 2004225
Oct 2004190
Sept 2004190
Aug 2004215
Jul 2004200
Jun 2004200
May 2004180
Apr 2004120
Mar 2004105
Feb 2004100
Jan 2004100
Dec 2003100
Nov 2003100
Oct 2003100
Sept 2003100
Aug 2003100
Jul 2003100
Jun 2003100
May 2003100
Apr 2003100
Mar 2003100
Feb 200390
Jan 2003100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-205-74-retail-kg.