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Oil (vegetable) in Ruyigi

Ruyigi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,455–20,390

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,244–21,801

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,455 and 20,390 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,244 and 21,801 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Ruyigi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,455 and 20,390 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,244 and 21,801 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,984–17,844 15,083 12,101–18,446 20,226 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,630–19,474 15,579 11,922–19,931 21,090 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,455–20,390 14,925 11,206–27,219 18,947 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,480–21,569 15,231 11,294–25,036 19,884 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,244–21,801 15,262 10,534–26,349 20,203 –
Price history (82 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,167
Jun 202615,167
May 202615,382
Apr 202615,583
Mar 202613,830
Feb 202614,274
Jan 202614,479
Dec 202516,400
Nov 202517,323
Oct 202517,750
Sept 202520,000
Aug 202519,333
Jul 202519,282
Jun 202519,375
May 202519,765
Apr 202518,950
Mar 202518,224
Feb 202517,214
Jan 202518,278
Dec 202415,000
Nov 202414,812
Oct 202414,636
Sept 202413,733
Aug 202412,872
Jul 202413,444
Jun 202412,354
May 202410,750
Apr 202410,000
Mar 20249,814
Feb 20249,822
Jan 202410,000
Dec 202313,000
Nov 202310,500
Oct 202310,083
Sept 202310,250
Aug 202310,106
Jul 202310,083
Jun 202310,000
May 20239,271
Apr 20239,729
Mar 20239,597
Feb 202310,000
Jan 202310,000
Dec 202210,667
Nov 20229,938
Oct 202211,547
Sept 202210,781
Aug 202210,417
May 20229,644
Apr 20229,333
Mar 20228,500
Feb 20229,090
Jan 20229,000
Mar 20216,000
Feb 20216,000
Jan 20216,700
Dec 20206,000
Nov 20206,000
Sept 20206,000
Aug 20206,000
Jul 20206,000
Jun 20206,000
Mar 20204,750
Feb 20205,250
Dec 20194,750
Nov 20194,400
Sept 20196,000
Aug 20196,000
Jul 20195,500
Jun 20195,250
May 20195,125
Mar 20195,000
Feb 20194,833
Jan 20194,333
Dec 20184,417
Nov 20184,333
Oct 20185,167
Sept 20184,429
Aug 20184,500
Jul 20184,367
Jun 20185,000
May 20185,214

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-205-96-retail-kg.