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Oil (palm) in Ngozi

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 11% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,545–13,688

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,177–15,310

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

15%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,545 and 13,688 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,177 and 15,310 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 15%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Ngozi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,545 and 13,688 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,177 and 15,310 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 15%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season
  • Data error: a value that jumped and reversed; not used by the model

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 30,054); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 9,576–12,568 10,902 8,600–14,059 10,465 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,905–12,645 10,412 7,886–15,867 9,909 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,545–13,688 10,517 7,843–17,549 10,278 15%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,301–14,222 10,479 7,353–20,881 10,343 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,177–15,310 10,149 6,828–30,054 10,149 –
Price history (86 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202612,000
Jun 20268,875
May 202610,049
Apr 20269,650
Mar 202633,233Data error
Feb 202612,167
Jan 202611,176
Dec 202510,979
Nov 202512,609
Oct 202511,444
Sept 202510,938
Aug 202511,333
Jul 202511,667
Jun 202511,033
May 202510,774
Apr 202510,475
Mar 20258,721
Feb 20256,772
Jan 20255,363
Dec 20245,807
Nov 20245,638
Oct 20245,335
Sept 20245,348
Aug 20245,298
Jul 20245,583
Jun 20245,688
May 20246,031
Apr 20244,678
Mar 20245,217
Feb 20245,300
Jan 20245,083
Dec 20236,000
Nov 20234,962
Oct 20234,910
Sept 20234,898
Aug 20234,375
Jul 20235,100
Jun 20234,500
May 20234,692
Apr 20234,181
Mar 20234,658
Feb 20234,237
Dec 20224,341
Nov 20224,706
Oct 20224,783
Sept 20224,733
Aug 20224,767
May 20223,416
Apr 20223,633
Mar 20223,688
Feb 20223,556
Jan 20224,000
May 20212,600
Apr 20212,581
Mar 20212,511
Feb 20212,456
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,425
Nov 20202,417
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,383
Aug 20202,435
Jul 20202,441
Jun 20202,489
Mar 20202,483
Feb 20202,517
Jan 20202,433
Dec 20192,483
Nov 20192,420
Oct 20192,340
Sept 20192,400
Aug 20192,520
Jul 20192,720
Jun 20192,733
May 20192,683
Mar 20192,000
Feb 20192,200
Jan 20192,000
Dec 20182,000
Nov 20181,971
Oct 20181,840
Sept 20182,800
Aug 20183,167
Jul 20183,083
Jun 20182,992
May 20182,917

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-206-62-retail-kg.