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Maize (white) in Ngozi

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,358–2,141

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,289–2,302

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,358 and 2,141 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,289 and 2,302 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Ngozi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,358 and 2,141 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,289 and 2,302 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,266); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,302–1,691 1,471 1,188–2,087 1,976 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,302–1,891 1,541 1,171–2,696 2,082 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,358–2,141 1,623 1,147–3,210 2,337 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,348–2,292 1,650 1,142–4,266 2,352 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,289–2,302 1,570 1,122–4,152 2,068 –
Price history (167 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,400
Jun 20261,300
May 20261,310
Apr 20261,200
Mar 20261,392
Feb 20261,924
Jan 20262,204
Dec 20252,008
Nov 20251,922
Oct 20251,751
Sept 20251,721
Aug 20251,600
Jul 20251,567
Jun 20251,422
May 20251,355
Apr 20251,370
Mar 20251,356
Feb 20252,070
Jan 20252,236
Dec 20242,439
Nov 20242,256
Oct 20241,916
Sept 20241,787
Aug 20241,662
Jul 20241,217
Jun 20241,233
May 20241,058
Apr 20241,156
Mar 20241,117
Feb 20241,425
Jan 20241,706
Dec 20232,300
Nov 20232,208
Oct 20231,903
Sept 20231,923
Aug 20231,825
Jul 20231,667
Jun 20231,750
May 20231,508
Apr 20231,381
Mar 20231,579
Feb 20231,530
Dec 20221,702
Nov 20221,688
Oct 20221,508
Sept 20221,267
Aug 20221,128
May 20221,044
Apr 2022967
Mar 2022765
Feb 2022800
Jan 2022800
May 2021700
Apr 2021725
Mar 2021750
Feb 2021800
Jan 2021900
Dec 2020938
Nov 2020883
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020765
Aug 2020760
Jul 2020710
Jun 2020789
Mar 2020717
Feb 2020800
Jan 20201,333
Dec 20191,300
Oct 2019789
Aug 2019560
Jul 2019640
Jun 2019567
May 2019475
Mar 2019510
Feb 2019617
Jan 2019624
Dec 2018667
Nov 2018644
Oct 2018618
Sept 2018590
Aug 2018552
Jul 2018529
Jun 2018514
May 2018541
Apr 2018479
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018565
Jan 2018839
Dec 2017950
Nov 20171,025
Oct 20171,225
Sept 20171,070
Aug 20171,081
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,100
May 20171,250
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,167
Feb 20171,000
Jan 20171,200
Dec 20161,200
Nov 20161,500
Oct 20161,478
Sept 20161,017
Aug 2016833
Jul 2016700
Jun 2016650
May 2016700
Apr 2016650
Mar 2016750
Feb 2016800
Jan 2016900
Dec 2015600
Nov 2015800
Oct 2015600
Sept 2015600
Aug 2015600
Jul 2015550
Jun 2015575
May 2015550
Apr 2015513
Mar 2015450
Feb 2015513
Jan 2015600
Dec 2014621
Nov 2014590
Oct 2014620
Sept 2014675
Aug 2014675
Jul 2014750
Jun 2014750
Apr 2014800
Feb 2014760
Jan 2014760
Nov 2013797
Oct 2013710
Sept 2013688
Aug 2013650
Jul 2013600
Jun 2013538
May 2013550
Apr 2013850
Mar 2013650
Feb 2013600
Jan 2013800
Dec 2012800
Nov 2012625
Oct 2012625
Sept 2012580
Aug 2012640
Jul 2012640
Jun 2012600
May 2012600
Apr 2012550
Mar 2012500
Feb 2012527
Dec 2011550
Nov 2011580
Oct 2011550
Sept 2011550
Aug 2011600
Jul 2011635
May 2011500
Apr 2011600
Mar 2011525
Feb 2011500
Jan 2011400

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-206-67-retail-kg.