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Cassava flour in Ngozi

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 25% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,366–2,449

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,403–2,892

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,366 and 2,449 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,403 and 2,892 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Ngozi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,366 and 2,449 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,403 and 2,892 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,571); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,487–2,096 1,802 1,366–2,234 1,632 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,393–2,249 1,796 1,159–2,885 1,582 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,366–2,449 1,702 1,088–3,493 1,772 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,414–2,809 1,733 1,084–5,296 1,840 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,403–2,892 1,747 1,063–5,571 1,773 –
Price history (236 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jun 20261,475
May 20261,801
Apr 20261,713
Mar 20261,564
Feb 20261,660
Jan 20261,500
Dec 20251,364
Nov 20251,135
Oct 20251,340
Sept 20251,274
Aug 20251,600
Jul 20251,633
Jun 20251,522
May 20251,463
Apr 20251,427
Mar 20251,438
Feb 20251,452
Jan 20251,799
Dec 20241,865
Nov 20241,573
Oct 20241,667
Sept 20241,709
Aug 20241,375
Jul 20241,450
Jun 20241,378
May 20241,469
Apr 20241,544
Mar 20241,808
Feb 20241,892
Jan 20241,783
Dec 20231,800
Nov 20232,033
Oct 20232,000
Sept 20231,840
Aug 20232,050
Jul 20231,683
Jun 20231,750
May 20231,742
Apr 20231,559
Mar 20231,769
Feb 20231,620
Dec 20221,216
Nov 20221,221
Oct 20221,158
Sept 20221,083
Aug 20221,050
May 20221,200
Apr 20221,200
Mar 20221,035
Feb 20221,088
Jan 20221,000
May 2021900
Apr 2021881
Mar 2021856
Feb 2021894
Jan 2021783
Dec 2020888
Nov 2020833
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020657
Aug 2020655
Jul 2020691
Jun 2020800
Mar 2020750
Feb 2020725
Jan 2020700
Dec 2019800
Oct 2019485
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019550
Jun 2019500
May 2019500
Mar 2019467
Feb 2019548
Jan 2019459
Dec 2018429
Nov 2018467
Oct 2018427
Sept 2018433
Aug 2018503
Jul 2018585
Jun 2018678
May 2018778
Apr 2018733
Mar 2018750
Feb 2018823
Jan 2018919
Dec 20171,044
Nov 20171,043
Oct 20171,025
Sept 2017967
Aug 20171,113
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,350
May 20171,400
Apr 20171,425
Mar 20171,433
Feb 20171,325
Jan 20171,100
Dec 20161,067
Nov 2016833
Oct 2016736
Sept 2016650
Aug 2016721
Jul 2016746
Jun 2016783
May 2016827
Apr 2016900
Mar 2016950
Feb 2016875
Jan 2016775
Dec 2015575
Nov 2015650
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015450
Aug 2015483
Jul 2015550
Jun 2015775
May 2015680
Apr 2015675
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015475
Jan 2015488
Dec 2014719
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014738
Sept 2014733
Aug 2014733
Jul 2014718
Jun 2014696
Apr 2014668
Mar 2014681
Feb 2014644
Jan 2014625
Nov 2013600
Oct 2013600
Sept 2013600
Aug 2013600
Jul 2013620
Jun 2013650
May 2013660
Apr 2013625
Mar 2013675
Feb 2013650
Jan 2013660
Dec 2012700
Nov 2012625
Oct 2012638
Sept 2012638
Aug 2012650
Jul 2012633
Jun 2012700
May 2012983
Apr 2012980
Mar 2012650
Feb 2012600
Jan 2012600
Dec 2011625
Nov 2011475
Oct 2011483
Sept 2011500
Aug 2011500
Jul 2011627
Jun 2011650
May 2011550
Apr 2011600
Mar 2011512
Feb 2011400
Jan 2011390
Apr 2010610
May 2008300
Apr 2008300
Mar 2008300
Feb 2008300
Jan 2008313
Dec 2007265
Nov 2007275
Oct 2007250
Sept 2007300
Aug 2007300
Jul 2007290
Jun 2007280
May 2007350
Apr 2007350
Mar 2007380
Feb 2007375
Jan 2007375
Dec 2006400
Nov 2006375
Oct 2006350
Sept 2006330
Aug 2006320
Jul 2006350
Jun 2006350
May 2006372
Apr 2006365
Mar 2006368
Feb 2006310
Jan 2006305
Dec 2005300
Nov 2005300
Oct 2005275
Sept 2005300
Aug 2005338
Jul 2005375
Jun 2005360
May 2005400
Apr 2005400
Mar 2005400
Feb 2005400
Jan 2005375
Dec 2004350
Nov 2004325
Oct 2004350
Sept 2004250
Aug 2004235
Jul 2004250
Jun 2004225
May 2004230
Apr 2004235
Mar 2004220
Feb 2004200
Jan 2004200
Dec 2003160
Nov 2003140
Oct 2003120
Sept 2003120
Aug 2003120
Jul 2003120
Jun 2003120
May 2003120
Apr 2003100
Mar 200395
Feb 200395
Jan 200395

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-206-74-retail-kg.