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Maize flour in Ngozi

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,708–2,536

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,647–2,493

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,708 and 2,536 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,647 and 2,493 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Ngozi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,708 and 2,536 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,647 and 2,493 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,272); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,662–2,037 1,820 1,488–2,501 2,227 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,664–2,195 1,875 1,464–2,687 2,265 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,708–2,536 1,980 1,440–3,768 2,625 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,700–2,600 1,987 1,429–4,272 2,626 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,647–2,493 1,941 1,340–2,978 2,420 –
Price history (118 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,800
Jun 20261,525
May 20261,666
Apr 20261,463
Mar 20261,683
Feb 20262,340
Jan 20262,484
Dec 20252,289
Nov 20252,213
Oct 20252,029
Sept 20251,978
Aug 20251,800
Jul 20251,800
Jun 20251,651
May 20251,697
Apr 20251,652
Mar 20251,624
Feb 20252,363
Jan 20252,725
Dec 20242,754
Nov 20242,512
Oct 20242,153
Sept 20242,030
Aug 20241,872
Jul 20241,417
Jun 20241,491
May 20241,300
Apr 20241,433
Mar 20241,358
Feb 20241,933
Jan 20241,933
Dec 20232,500
Nov 20232,617
Oct 20232,268
Sept 20232,132
Aug 20232,175
Jul 20231,900
Jun 20231,900
May 20231,717
Apr 20231,550
Mar 20231,815
Feb 20231,791
Dec 20221,918
Nov 20221,909
Oct 20221,742
Sept 20221,483
Aug 20221,317
May 20221,164
Apr 20221,133
Mar 20221,112
Feb 20221,069
Jan 20221,000
May 2021800
Apr 2021819
Mar 2021856
Feb 2021939
Jan 20211,050
Dec 20201,038
Nov 20201,017
Oct 2020800
Sept 2020938
Aug 2020900
Jul 2020861
Jun 2020963
Mar 2020850
Feb 20201,767
Jan 20201,431
Dec 20191,400
Oct 2019831
Aug 2019660
Jul 20191,045
Jun 2019667
May 2019600
Mar 2019690
Feb 2019764
Jan 2019760
Dec 2018712
Nov 2018729
Oct 2018740
Sept 2018760
Aug 2018700
Jul 2018593
Jun 2018595
May 2018622
Jul 20171,300
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,350
Apr 20171,375
Mar 20171,350
Feb 20171,250
Jan 20171,400
Dec 20161,417
Nov 20161,600
Oct 20161,600
Sept 20161,150
Aug 2016933
Jul 2016800
Jun 2016750
May 2016800
Apr 2016738
Mar 2016850
Feb 2016900
Jan 20161,000
Dec 20151,000
Nov 2015950
Oct 2015700
Sept 2015700
Aug 2015700
Jul 2015700
Jun 2015660
May 2015554
Apr 2015588
Mar 2015590
Feb 2015675
Jan 2015733
Dec 2014720
Nov 2014530
Oct 2014528

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-206-76-retail-kg.