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Oil (vegetable) in Ngozi

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,542–19,919

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,730–21,074

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,542 and 19,919 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,730 and 21,074 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Ngozi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,542 and 19,919 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,730 and 21,074 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 29,832); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,738–17,994 16,035 13,078–18,946 17,537 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,502–18,990 16,317 12,409–22,421 18,259 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,542–19,919 16,012 12,234–25,356 17,954 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,375–20,299 16,043 11,894–25,528 18,445 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,730–21,074 16,054 11,555–29,832 18,349 –
Price history (86 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202617,000
Jun 202612,625
May 202614,902
Apr 202615,700
Mar 202615,817
Feb 202615,643
Jan 202616,255
Dec 202516,611
Nov 202515,109
Oct 202516,812
Sept 202516,281
Aug 202517,667
Jul 202517,000
Jun 202516,511
May 202515,952
Apr 202517,272
Mar 202516,529
Feb 202515,655
Jan 202514,324
Dec 202413,891
Nov 202414,944
Oct 202414,098
Sept 202412,537
Aug 202412,625
Jul 202411,833
Jun 202411,464
May 20249,688
Apr 202410,333
Mar 202410,667
Feb 202410,083
Jan 20249,667
Dec 202310,000
Nov 20238,792
Oct 20239,042
Sept 20239,833
Aug 20239,250
Jul 20238,917
Jun 20239,250
May 20238,875
Apr 20238,500
Mar 20238,833
Feb 20238,761
Dec 20228,386
Nov 20228,574
Oct 20228,958
Sept 20228,333
Aug 20228,333
May 20228,078
Apr 20228,000
Mar 20227,862
Feb 20228,344
Jan 20227,000
May 20216,000
Apr 20216,194
Mar 20216,639
Feb 20216,306
Jan 20215,667
Dec 20205,450
Nov 20205,417
Oct 20205,600
Sept 20205,078
Aug 20205,080
Jul 20204,616
Jun 20204,781
Mar 20205,083
Feb 20204,667
Jan 20204,400
Dec 20194,367
Nov 20194,400
Oct 20194,400
Sept 20194,200
Aug 20194,400
Jul 20194,300
Jun 20194,167
May 20194,333
Mar 20195,100
Feb 20194,500
Jan 20195,300
Dec 20185,625
Nov 20185,286
Oct 20185,100
Sept 20185,100
Aug 20185,400
Jul 20184,667
Jun 20184,917
May 20184,900

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-206-96-retail-kg.