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Food basket in Ngozi

Ngozi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

28,759–43,568

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

28,631–54,869

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 37,320 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,759 and 43,568 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 28,631 and 54,869 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Ngozi: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 37,320 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,759 and 43,568 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 28,631 and 54,869 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 89,076); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 30,624–38,504 34,435 28,847–40,743
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 29,078–40,821 34,325 26,637–49,457
Nov 2026
Next month		 28,759–43,568 34,081 26,462–54,661
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 29,009–49,558 34,981 25,689–78,981
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 28,631–54,869 34,958 24,975–89,076
Cost history (83 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202637,320
Jun 202628,639
May 202636,531
Apr 202634,808
Feb 202633,628
Jan 202630,515
Dec 202528,755
Nov 202527,005
Oct 202528,934
Sept 202527,736
Aug 202531,460
Jul 202532,030
Jun 202530,284
May 202529,654
Apr 202529,949
Mar 202528,951
Feb 202526,965
Jan 202530,710
Dec 202432,525
Nov 202428,373
Oct 202428,739
Sept 202429,108
Aug 202424,853
Jul 202425,752
Jun 202424,369
May 202426,362
Apr 202427,161
Mar 202430,384
Feb 202430,992
Jan 202429,317
Dec 202330,780
Nov 202332,864
Oct 202332,158
Sept 202330,320
Aug 202331,849
Jul 202327,799
Jun 202327,975
May 202329,222
Apr 202327,391
Mar 202330,660
Feb 202327,477
Dec 202221,252
Nov 202221,341
Oct 202220,260
Sept 202218,696
Aug 202218,359
May 202219,917
Apr 202219,787
Mar 202217,178
Feb 202217,765
Jan 202216,920
May 202114,934
Apr 202114,722
Mar 202114,649
Feb 202114,828
Jan 202113,516
Dec 202014,933
Nov 202014,577
Oct 202011,376
Sept 202012,043
Aug 202011,943
Jul 202012,133
Jun 202013,184
Mar 202013,054
Feb 202012,566
Jan 202012,119
Dec 201913,504
Oct 20199,367
Aug 20198,303
Jul 201910,457
Jun 20199,446
May 20199,621
Mar 20198,998
Feb 201910,024
Jan 20198,782
Dec 20188,701
Nov 20188,914
Oct 20188,343
Sept 20188,973
Aug 20189,920
Jul 201810,794
Jun 201811,862
May 201813,080

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620