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Oil (palm) in Bandaga

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,219–10,858

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,995–11,637

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,219 and 10,858 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,995 and 11,637 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Bandaga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,219 and 10,858 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,995 and 11,637 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,559–10,246 9,234 8,022–10,469 9,857 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,033–10,292 9,025 7,427–11,753 9,271 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,219–10,858 9,029 7,292–13,406 9,579 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,117–11,221 9,029 7,538–14,246 9,671 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,995–11,637 9,351 7,147–14,361 10,143 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,833
Jun 202610,000
May 202610,000
Apr 20269,000
Mar 20268,750
Feb 20269,875
Jan 20269,576
Dec 20259,417
Nov 20259,344
Oct 20259,417
Sept 202510,000
Aug 202511,617
Jul 202511,706
Jun 202511,531
May 202511,694
Apr 202510,235
Mar 20259,667
Feb 20257,763
Jan 20257,000
Dec 20246,000
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20246,033
Aug 20245,872
Jul 20246,317
Jun 20246,100
May 20246,233
Apr 20245,500
Mar 20245,767
Feb 20245,806
Jan 20246,000
Dec 20235,750
Nov 20236,000
Oct 20235,533
Sept 20235,892
Aug 20236,000
Jul 20236,000
Jun 20235,673
May 20235,730
Apr 20235,143
Mar 20234,882
Feb 20234,538
Jan 20234,200
Dec 20224,415
Nov 20224,454
Oct 20224,297
Sept 20224,401
Aug 20225,083
Jun 20224,200
May 20224,565
Apr 20223,867
Mar 20223,333
Feb 20223,510
Jan 20223,413
Oct 20213,133
May 20213,200
Apr 20212,915
Mar 20212,321
Feb 20212,633
Jan 20212,525
Dec 20202,400
Nov 20202,342
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,400
Aug 20202,338
Jul 20202,582
Jun 20202,533
Mar 20202,550
Feb 20202,500
Jan 20202,500
Dec 20192,520
Nov 20192,420
Oct 20192,350
Sept 20192,267
Aug 20192,667
Jul 20192,850
Jun 20192,700
May 20192,683
Mar 20192,400
Feb 20192,300
Jan 20192,300
Dec 20182,233
Nov 20182,133
Oct 20182,133
Sept 20182,600
Aug 20183,133
Jul 20183,117
Jun 20183,083
May 20182,950
Apr 20182,743
Mar 20182,533
Feb 20182,300
Jan 20182,200

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2422-62-retail-kg.