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Cassava flour in Bandaga

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,143–1,876

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,192–2,240

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,143 and 1,876 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,192 and 2,240 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Bandaga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,143 and 1,876 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,192 and 2,240 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,082); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,190–1,489 1,352 1,097–1,661 1,514 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,181–1,640 1,384 992–2,008 1,533 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,143–1,876 1,387 991–2,636 1,719 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,147–2,127 1,393 1,021–4,082 1,741 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,192–2,240 1,445 1,029–4,031 1,765 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,325
Jun 20261,367
May 20261,550
Apr 20261,400
Mar 20261,625
Feb 20261,478
Jan 20261,521
Dec 20251,442
Nov 20251,134
Oct 20251,146
Sept 20251,194
Aug 20251,580
Jul 20251,806
Jun 20251,694
May 20251,610
Apr 20251,482
Mar 20251,317
Feb 20251,292
Jan 20251,400
Dec 20241,477
Nov 20241,630
Oct 20241,567
Sept 20241,331
Aug 20241,426
Jul 20241,175
Jun 20241,250
May 20241,567
Apr 20241,675
Mar 20241,673
Feb 20241,719
Jan 20241,900
Dec 20231,875
Nov 20231,733
Oct 20231,704
Sept 20231,731
Aug 20231,635
Jul 20231,709
Jun 20231,842
May 20231,905
Apr 20231,965
Mar 20231,875
Feb 20231,665
Jan 20231,700
Dec 20221,279
Nov 20221,311
Oct 20221,294
Sept 20221,081
Aug 20221,144
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,251
Apr 20221,133
Mar 20221,067
Feb 20221,164
Jan 20221,107
Oct 2021867
May 2021950
Apr 2021908
Mar 2021900
Feb 2021850
Jan 2021850
Dec 2020881
Nov 2020824
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020638
Aug 2020618
Jul 2020637
Jun 2020733
Mar 2020667
Feb 2020650
Jan 2020633
Dec 2019700
Oct 2019483
Aug 2019442
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019583
May 2019583
Mar 2019483
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019517
Dec 2018492
Nov 2018508
Oct 2018483
Sept 2018492
Aug 2018467
Jul 2018542
Jun 2018642
May 2018800
Apr 2018800
Mar 2018750
Feb 2018950
Jan 2018917
Dec 2017975
Nov 20171,050
Oct 20171,100
Sept 20171,071
Aug 20171,100
Jul 20171,100
Jun 20171,100
May 20171,356
Apr 20171,300
Mar 20171,260
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,200
Dec 20161,200
Nov 2016938
Oct 2016920

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2422-74-retail-kg.