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Maize flour in Bandaga

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,633–2,417

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,528–2,906

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,633 and 2,417 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,528 and 2,906 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Bandaga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,633 and 2,417 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,528 and 2,906 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,282); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,595–1,932 1,739 1,475–2,153 2,293 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,594–2,179 1,800 1,396–2,862 2,334 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,633–2,417 1,883 1,392–3,263 2,610 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,630–2,584 1,931 1,362–4,243 2,683 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,528–2,906 1,845 1,298–7,282 2,466 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,683
Jun 20261,767
May 20261,688
Apr 20261,300
Mar 20261,650
Feb 20261,785
Jan 20262,030
Dec 20252,258
Nov 20252,017
Oct 20252,011
Sept 20251,828
Aug 20251,790
Jul 20251,882
Jun 20252,188
May 20251,593
Apr 20251,665
Mar 20251,700
Feb 20252,032
Jan 20252,733
Dec 20242,850
Nov 20242,465
Oct 20242,300
Sept 20242,084
Aug 20241,777
Jul 20241,479
Jun 20241,450
May 20241,358
Apr 20241,500
Mar 20241,508
Feb 20241,758
Jan 20242,038
Dec 20232,175
Nov 20232,367
Oct 20232,179
Sept 20232,215
Aug 20232,052
Jul 20231,891
Jun 20231,764
May 20231,700
Apr 20231,704
Mar 20231,933
Feb 20231,710
Jan 20231,700
Dec 20222,297
Nov 20222,268
Oct 20221,956
Sept 20221,772
Aug 20221,620
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,167
Apr 20221,100
Mar 20221,100
Feb 20221,282
Jan 20221,300
Oct 20211,167
May 2021850
Apr 2021870
Mar 2021944
Feb 20211,067
Jan 20211,200
Dec 20201,220
Nov 20201,281
Oct 20201,000
Sept 20201,041
Aug 2020956
Jul 2020926
Jun 2020842
Mar 2020833
Feb 2020900
Jan 20201,300
Dec 20191,300
Oct 2019967
Aug 2019812
Jul 2019792
Jun 2019700
May 2019642
Mar 2019642
Feb 2019800
Jan 2019783
Dec 2018775
Nov 2018745
Oct 2018700
Sept 2018667
Aug 2018683
Jul 2018692
Jun 2018683
May 2018700
Apr 2018721
Mar 2018717
Feb 2018800
Jan 2018933
Dec 20171,062
Nov 20171,050
Oct 20171,275
Sept 20171,279
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,250
Jun 20171,250
May 20171,267
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,280
Feb 20171,400
Jan 20171,356
Dec 20161,300
Nov 20161,209
Oct 20161,125

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2422-76-retail-kg.