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Oil (vegetable) in Bandaga

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,533–18,878

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,718–19,381

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,533 and 18,878 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,718 and 19,381 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Bandaga: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,533 and 18,878 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,718 and 19,381 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,825–17,676 15,307 13,010–18,693 17,562 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,968–18,230 15,366 13,154–22,235 17,990 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,533–18,878 15,144 13,057–22,695 17,239 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,287–19,310 15,089 13,100–24,775 17,319 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,718–19,381 15,419 13,173–21,064 19,095 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202616,000
Jun 202617,000
May 202615,125
Apr 202620,000
Mar 202615,500
Feb 202615,000
Jan 202616,576
Dec 202513,675
Nov 202515,875
Oct 202516,694
Sept 202517,781
Aug 202515,467
Jul 202515,588
Jun 202516,406
May 202516,944
Apr 202515,600
Mar 202514,611
Feb 202515,000
Jan 202514,667
Dec 202413,682
Nov 202413,475
Oct 202412,167
Sept 202411,844
Aug 202413,256
Jul 202412,458
Jun 202410,000
May 202411,000
Apr 202410,250
Mar 20249,642
Feb 202410,208
Jan 202410,000
Dec 202310,750
Nov 20239,167
Oct 202310,500
Sept 20239,827
Aug 20239,738
Jul 202310,078
Jun 202310,182
May 20239,800
Apr 20239,573
Mar 20239,922
Feb 202310,146
Jan 202311,000
Dec 20229,742
Nov 20228,696
Oct 20229,412
Sept 20229,986
Aug 202210,292
Jun 202210,000
May 20228,657
Apr 20229,333
Mar 20229,333
Feb 20229,058
Jan 20229,067
Oct 20218,833
May 20213,800
Apr 20215,677
Mar 20216,540
Feb 20215,833
Jan 20216,000
Dec 20205,308
Nov 20205,760
Oct 20206,000
Sept 20205,520
Aug 20205,745
Jul 20205,816
Jun 20205,667
Mar 20205,417
Feb 20205,500
Jan 20205,333
Dec 20195,400
Nov 20195,500
Oct 20195,417
Sept 20195,167
Aug 20195,333
Jul 20195,617
Jun 20195,233
May 20195,500
Mar 20195,250
Feb 20194,583
Jan 20194,750
Dec 20184,917
Nov 20184,950
Oct 20184,917
Sept 20185,167
Aug 20184,833
Jul 20184,917
Jun 20184,750
May 20184,917
Apr 20185,129
Mar 20185,000
Feb 20185,400
Jan 20185,333

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2422-96-retail-kg.