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Food basket in Bandaga

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

25,429–36,961

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

25,697–41,350

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 28,025 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,429 and 36,961 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,697 and 41,350 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Bandaga: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 28,025 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 25,429 and 36,961 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 25,697 and 41,350 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 65,872); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 26,158–30,797 28,376 24,856–33,519
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 25,774–32,760 28,803 23,480–36,815
Nov 2026
Next month		 25,429–36,961 29,374 23,364–46,770
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 25,413–42,033 29,872 23,755–65,872
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 25,697–41,350 30,341 23,374–61,612
Cost history (91 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202628,025
Jun 202629,300
May 202632,700
Apr 202632,010
Mar 202630,938
Feb 202629,629
Jan 202630,131
Dec 202528,680
Nov 202524,813
Oct 202525,020
Sept 202526,113
Aug 202532,166
Jul 202534,706
Jun 202532,838
May 202532,418
Apr 202531,066
Mar 202529,284
Feb 202527,157
Jan 202528,830
Dec 202428,785
Nov 202429,919
Oct 202428,460
Sept 202425,388
Aug 202426,084
Jul 202422,928
Jun 202423,259
May 202427,751
Apr 202429,385
Mar 202429,870
Feb 202429,969
Jan 202430,788
Dec 202331,508
Nov 202330,340
Oct 202329,655
Sept 202329,979
Aug 202328,890
Jul 202328,825
Jun 202330,343
May 202332,646
Apr 202334,029
Mar 202332,526
Feb 202328,690
Jan 202328,698
Dec 202222,352
Nov 202222,670
Oct 202221,824
Sept 202218,818
Aug 202220,060
Jun 202219,908
May 202221,352
Apr 202219,508
Mar 202217,500
Feb 202218,667
Jan 202217,723
Oct 202114,782
May 202116,038
Apr 202115,369
Mar 202115,311
Feb 202114,507
Jan 202114,102
Dec 202015,343
Nov 202014,605
Oct 202012,936
Sept 202012,047
Aug 202011,670
Jul 202011,744
Jun 202012,723
Mar 202012,670
Feb 202012,225
Jan 202011,725
Dec 201912,515
Oct 20199,491
Aug 20198,880
Jul 20199,826
Jun 201910,483
May 201911,161
Mar 20199,736
Feb 20199,387
Jan 201910,217
Dec 20189,841
Nov 20189,882
Oct 20189,312
Sept 20189,824
Aug 20189,742
Jul 201810,661
Jun 201811,568
May 201813,616
Apr 201813,370
Mar 201812,428
Feb 201814,427
Jan 201814,078

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620