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Oil (palm) in Bukeye

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,953–11,045

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,873–11,837

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,953 and 11,045 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,873 and 11,837 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Bukeye: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,953 and 11,045 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,873 and 11,837 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 16,352); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,440–10,553 9,359 7,863–10,940 9,952 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,743–10,584 8,979 7,180–11,999 8,893 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,953–11,045 8,981 7,345–12,967 9,282 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,175–11,370 9,266 7,320–13,248 9,824 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,873–11,837 9,456 7,006–16,352 10,031 –
Price history (94 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,750
Jul 202612,000
Jun 202610,833
May 20269,333
Apr 20268,750
Mar 20269,905
Feb 20269,846
Jan 20269,444
Dec 202511,000
Nov 20259,240
Oct 20259,412
Sept 202510,438
Aug 202511,000
Jul 202510,000
Jun 20259,711
May 20259,885
Apr 20259,957
Mar 20258,750
Feb 20257,711
Jan 20257,417
Dec 20246,144
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20245,750
Sept 20245,521
Aug 20245,900
Jul 20245,982
Jun 20246,205
May 20246,192
Apr 20245,525
Mar 20245,458
Feb 20245,661
Jan 20245,250
Dec 20235,500
Nov 20235,500
Oct 20235,824
Sept 20235,990
Aug 20236,000
Jul 20235,750
Jun 20235,548
May 20235,575
Apr 20235,247
Mar 20234,766
Feb 20234,362
Dec 20224,439
Nov 20224,100
Oct 20223,820
Sept 20224,481
Aug 20225,156
Jul 20225,250
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,547
Apr 20224,233
Mar 20223,525
Feb 20223,467
Jan 20223,375
Oct 20212,700
May 20212,800
Apr 20212,742
Mar 20212,700
Feb 20212,583
Jan 20212,350
Dec 20202,348
Nov 20202,307
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,287
Aug 20202,368
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,433
Mar 20202,360
Feb 20202,360
Jan 20202,367
Dec 20192,480
Nov 20192,240
Oct 20192,133
Sept 20192,233
Aug 20192,633
Jul 20192,700
Jun 20192,767
May 20192,800
Mar 20192,333
Feb 20192,233
Jan 20192,083
Dec 20181,967
Nov 20181,967
Oct 20181,867
Sept 20182,620
Aug 20183,167
Jul 20183,133
Jun 20183,067
May 20182,880
Apr 20182,540
Mar 20182,350
Feb 20182,200
Jan 20182,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2425-62-retail-kg.