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Cassava flour in Bukeye

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,189–1,869

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,195–1,952

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,189 and 1,869 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,195 and 1,952 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Bukeye: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,189 and 1,869 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,195 and 1,952 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,5002,0002,500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 2,667); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,256–1,562 1,401 1,187–1,639 1,525 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,229–1,684 1,408 1,085–1,836 1,489 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,189–1,869 1,401 1,071–2,364 1,731 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,173–1,978 1,393 1,081–2,667 1,660 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,195–1,952 1,429 1,074–2,351 1,616 –
Price history (107 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,425
Jul 20261,500
Jun 20261,422
May 20261,511
Apr 20261,600
Mar 20261,537
Feb 20261,362
Jan 20261,500
Dec 20251,253
Nov 20251,154
Oct 20251,229
Sept 20251,309
Aug 20251,525
Jul 20251,500
Jun 20251,522
May 20251,438
Apr 20251,360
Mar 20251,440
Feb 20251,263
Jan 20251,200
Dec 20241,350
Nov 20241,525
Oct 20241,375
Sept 20241,388
Aug 20241,254
Jul 20241,241
Jun 20241,383
May 20241,540
Apr 20241,850
Mar 20241,773
Feb 20241,736
Jan 20241,850
Dec 20231,800
Nov 20231,933
Oct 20231,814
Sept 20231,685
Aug 20231,767
Jul 20231,733
Jun 20231,927
May 20231,917
Apr 20232,000
Mar 20231,952
Feb 20231,656
Dec 20221,361
Nov 20221,280
Oct 20221,146
Sept 20221,085
Aug 20221,233
Jul 2022975
Jun 20221,000
May 20221,070
Apr 20221,133
Mar 2022900
Feb 20221,100
Jan 2022950
Oct 2021800
May 20211,000
Apr 20211,000
Mar 2021900
Feb 2021917
Jan 2021900
Dec 2020811
Nov 2020827
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020600
Aug 2020614
Jul 2020633
Jun 2020708
Mar 2020660
Feb 2020690
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019620
Oct 2019475
Aug 2019467
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019500
May 2019540
Mar 2019508
Feb 2019633
Jan 2019500
Dec 2018500
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018480
Aug 2018483
Jul 2018533
Jun 2018633
May 2018830
Apr 2018860
Mar 2018850
Feb 2018900
Jan 2018900
Dec 2017971
Nov 20171,000
Oct 20171,000
Sept 2017964
Aug 2017900
Jul 20171,100
Jun 20171,100
May 20171,233
Apr 20171,300
Mar 20171,220
Feb 2017900
Jan 2017900
Dec 2016954
Nov 2016860
Oct 2016850

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2425-74-retail-kg.