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Maize flour in Bukeye

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,774–2,482

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,705–2,619

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,774 and 2,482 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,705 and 2,619 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Bukeye: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,774 and 2,482 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,705 and 2,619 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,775); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,730–2,089 1,882 1,670–2,457 2,271 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,731–2,242 1,962 1,579–2,433 2,363 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,774–2,482 2,068 1,612–3,269 2,669 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,774–2,569 2,116 1,531–3,775 2,789 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,705–2,619 2,035 1,472–3,682 2,531 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,925
Jul 20261,700
Jun 20261,700
May 20261,722
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,886
Feb 20261,915
Jan 20262,000
Dec 20252,165
Nov 20252,112
Oct 20252,141
Sept 20252,000
Aug 20251,950
Jun 20251,847
May 20251,531
Apr 20251,617
Mar 20251,960
Feb 20252,276
Jan 20252,500
Dec 20242,772
Nov 20242,475
Oct 20242,250
Sept 20241,988
Aug 20241,840
Jul 20241,553
Jun 20241,661
May 20241,612
Apr 20241,550
Mar 20241,668
Feb 20241,845
Jan 20242,075
Dec 20232,250
Nov 20232,200
Oct 20232,249
Sept 20232,175
Aug 20232,042
Jul 20231,917
Jun 20231,885
May 20231,800
Apr 20231,611
Mar 20231,934
Feb 20231,800
Dec 20222,297
Nov 20222,187
Oct 20221,746
Sept 20221,685
Aug 20221,433
Jul 20221,300
Jun 20221,300
May 20221,176
Apr 20221,067
Mar 20221,100
Feb 20221,167
Jan 20221,275
Oct 20211,200
May 2021850
Apr 2021938
Mar 2021950
Feb 20211,083
Jan 20211,200
Dec 20201,211
Nov 20201,110
Oct 20201,000
Sept 2020957
Aug 2020944
Jul 2020881
Jun 2020808
Mar 2020830
Feb 2020940
Jan 20201,300
Dec 20191,300
Oct 2019875
Aug 2019733
Jul 2019850
Jun 2019733
May 2019620
Mar 2019600
Feb 2019875
Jan 2019790
Dec 2018770
Nov 2018767
Oct 2018670
Sept 2018638
Aug 2018633
Jul 2018658
Jun 2018675
May 2018710
Apr 2018700
Mar 2018750
Feb 2018900
Jan 2018950
Dec 20171,100
Nov 20171,150
Oct 20171,167
Sept 20171,107
Aug 2017900
Jul 20171,300
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,183
Apr 20171,100
Mar 20171,220
Feb 20171,300
Jan 20171,317
Dec 20161,312
Nov 20161,157
Oct 20161,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2425-76-retail-kg.