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Oil (vegetable) in Bukeye

Muramvya, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,630–19,780

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,719–21,648

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,630 and 19,780 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,719 and 21,648 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Bukeye: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,630 and 19,780 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,719 and 21,648 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 29,923); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,666–18,142 16,085 13,473–19,135 17,720 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,500–18,319 15,594 13,225–22,030 17,304 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,630–19,780 16,193 12,880–24,721 18,299 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,049–20,338 16,009 12,171–27,348 17,862 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,719–21,648 16,127 11,777–29,923 18,823 –
Price history (94 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202616,750
Jul 202617,000
Jun 202616,222
May 202617,444
Apr 202611,600
Mar 202615,333
Feb 202614,885
Jan 202615,444
Dec 202515,765
Nov 202515,458
Oct 202515,824
Sept 202516,875
Aug 202519,000
Jul 202515,000
Jun 202517,511
May 202517,038
Apr 202518,037
Mar 202516,200
Feb 202516,316
Jan 202514,667
Dec 202413,722
Nov 202415,000
Oct 202412,750
Sept 202412,208
Aug 202413,292
Jul 202412,206
Jun 202411,125
May 202410,385
Apr 20249,500
Mar 20249,686
Feb 20249,848
Jan 20249,375
Dec 20239,500
Nov 202310,333
Oct 20239,589
Sept 20239,688
Aug 20239,955
Jul 202310,417
Jun 20239,955
May 202310,167
Apr 20239,444
Mar 202310,323
Feb 202310,417
Dec 20229,818
Nov 202211,600
Oct 202210,315
Sept 20229,750
Aug 20229,708
Jul 202210,500
Jun 20228,000
May 20229,147
Apr 20228,833
Mar 20229,375
Feb 20229,667
Jan 20229,500
Oct 20218,875
May 20217,000
Apr 20216,708
Mar 20215,750
Feb 20216,833
Jan 20216,000
Dec 20205,759
Nov 20205,617
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20205,217
Aug 20205,240
Jul 20205,361
Jun 20205,667
Mar 20204,700
Feb 20204,100
Jan 20205,000
Dec 20195,300
Nov 20194,800
Oct 20194,833
Sept 20195,083
Aug 20195,167
Jul 20195,100
Jun 20194,833
May 20194,960
Mar 20195,000
Feb 20194,667
Jan 20194,700
Dec 20185,050
Nov 20184,917
Oct 20184,333
Sept 20185,700
Aug 20185,333
Jul 20184,783
Jun 20185,167
May 20185,200
Apr 20185,100
Mar 20184,500
Feb 20185,500
Jan 20185,500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2425-96-retail-kg.