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Oil (palm) in Bukirasazi

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,808–11,244

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,684–12,814

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,808 and 11,244 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,684 and 12,814 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Bukirasazi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,808 and 11,244 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,684 and 12,814 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 18,516); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,504–10,837 9,414 7,868–11,502 11,122 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,728–10,622 8,930 7,092–13,493 9,841 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,808–11,244 8,947 7,036–14,278 9,860 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,710–11,819 8,975 6,992–16,246 10,105 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,684–12,814 9,481 6,881–18,516 10,911 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,667
Jun 202610,000
May 202610,306
Apr 20269,000
Mar 202610,208
Feb 20269,154
Jan 20269,909
Dec 20259,029
Nov 202510,293
Oct 202510,706
Sept 202510,688
Aug 202512,333
Jul 202511,350
Jun 202510,333
May 202510,903
Apr 202511,217
Mar 202510,039
Feb 20258,298
Jan 20257,106
Dec 20246,032
Nov 20245,856
Oct 20245,950
Sept 20246,347
Aug 20246,150
Jul 20246,000
Jun 20246,000
May 20245,767
Apr 20245,800
Mar 20245,918
Feb 20245,650
Jan 20245,900
Dec 20235,800
Nov 20236,000
Oct 20236,188
Sept 20236,450
Aug 20236,145
Jul 20236,031
Jun 20235,467
May 20235,082
Apr 20234,834
Mar 20234,406
Feb 20234,278
Dec 20224,500
Nov 20224,000
Oct 20224,109
Sept 20224,622
Aug 20224,863
Jul 20224,750
May 20224,650
Apr 20223,600
Mar 20223,575
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,644
Oct 20213,550
May 20212,800
Apr 20212,606
Mar 20212,585
Feb 20212,467
Jan 20212,459
Dec 20202,245
Nov 20202,100
Oct 20202,200
Sept 20202,333
Aug 20202,330
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,300
Mar 20202,300
Feb 20202,375
Jan 20202,450
Dec 20192,550
Nov 20192,200
Oct 20192,050
Sept 20192,500
Aug 20192,600
Jul 20192,675
Jun 20192,450
May 20192,525
Mar 20192,350
Feb 20192,200
Jan 20192,050
Dec 20182,000
Nov 20182,050
Oct 20181,800
Sept 20182,700
Aug 20183,040
Jul 20183,250
Jun 20183,012
May 20182,625
Mar 20182,175
Feb 20182,200
Jan 20182,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2426-62-retail-kg.