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Cassava flour in Bukirasazi

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,167–1,853

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,122–2,127

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,167 and 1,853 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,122 and 2,127 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Bukirasazi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,167 and 1,853 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,122 and 2,127 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,270); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,213–1,570 1,381 1,061–1,723 1,594 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,152–1,671 1,380 1,040–2,085 1,482 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,167–1,853 1,376 1,003–2,704 1,691 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,143–2,167 1,385 1,018–5,270 1,699 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,122–2,127 1,396 990–4,589 1,579 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,350
Jun 20261,550
May 20261,567
Apr 20261,850
Mar 20261,504
Feb 20261,435
Jan 20261,136
Dec 20251,159
Nov 20251,038
Oct 20251,243
Sept 20251,388
Aug 20251,333
Jul 20251,568
Jun 20251,515
May 20251,518
Apr 20251,391
Mar 20251,416
Feb 20251,460
Jan 20251,372
Dec 20241,532
Nov 20241,500
Oct 20241,600
Sept 20241,544
Aug 20241,605
Jul 20241,600
Jun 20241,700
May 20241,500
Apr 20241,500
Mar 20241,521
Feb 20241,772
Jan 20241,800
Dec 20231,750
Nov 20231,600
Oct 20231,688
Sept 20231,530
Aug 20231,440
Jul 20231,562
Jun 20232,000
May 20231,712
Apr 20231,672
Mar 20231,838
Feb 20231,683
Dec 20221,300
Nov 20221,225
Oct 20221,044
Sept 2022981
Aug 20221,086
Jul 20221,000
May 2022970
Apr 2022900
Mar 2022725
Feb 2022871
Jan 2022925
Oct 2021900
May 2021825
Apr 2021714
Mar 2021810
Feb 2021883
Jan 2021741
Dec 2020764
Nov 2020688
Oct 2020536
Sept 2020617
Aug 2020592
Jul 2020624
Jun 2020575
Mar 2020550
Feb 2020600
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019600
Oct 2019475
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019433
Jun 2019500
May 2019600
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019700
Jan 2019500
Dec 2018562
Nov 2018600
Oct 2018500
Sept 2018600
Aug 2018630
Jul 2018650
Jun 2018762
May 2018875
Mar 2018800
Feb 2018900
Jan 2018850
Dec 20171,000
Nov 20171,000
Oct 20171,000
Sept 2017967
Aug 2017950
Jul 2017967
Jun 2017900
May 2017867
Apr 20171,000
Mar 20171,000
Feb 20171,000
Jan 20171,000
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016910
Oct 2016700

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2426-74-retail-kg.