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Oil (vegetable) in Bukirasazi

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,577–19,329

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,183–19,066

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,577 and 19,329 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,183 and 19,066 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Bukirasazi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,577 and 19,329 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,183 and 19,066 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 24,615); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,242–16,997 14,855 12,653–18,339 16,928 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,505–17,890 15,289 12,588–19,623 17,849 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,577–19,329 15,165 11,960–24,615 17,616 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,740–18,951 15,203 11,850–20,152 17,957 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,183–19,066 15,107 11,472–21,671 17,711 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,333
Jun 202616,500
May 202616,500
Apr 202616,000
Mar 202616,250
Feb 202615,038
Jan 202615,318
Dec 202515,000
Nov 202515,319
Oct 202516,275
Sept 202514,938
Aug 202517,333
Jul 202516,150
Jun 202515,963
May 202513,903
Apr 202514,826
Mar 202515,373
Feb 202517,619
Jan 202513,895
Dec 202413,667
Nov 202412,769
Oct 202410,250
Sept 202412,578
Aug 202412,950
Jul 202413,500
Jun 202412,500
May 202412,667
Apr 202410,000
Mar 20249,235
Feb 20249,556
Jan 202410,000
Dec 202311,000
Nov 20239,500
Oct 202311,750
Sept 20239,300
Aug 20239,675
Jul 202310,375
Jun 20239,000
May 202310,050
Apr 20239,500
Mar 20239,147
Feb 20239,194
Dec 20229,000
Nov 20229,375
Oct 20229,656
Sept 20229,438
Aug 20229,069
Jul 202210,500
May 202210,083
Apr 20229,500
Mar 20228,250
Feb 20228,538
Jan 20225,812
Oct 20219,000
May 20216,000
Apr 20215,562
Mar 20215,475
Feb 20214,817
Jan 20215,176
Dec 20205,682
Nov 20205,125
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20204,667
Aug 20205,000
Jul 20205,803
Jun 20204,875
Mar 20205,000
Feb 20204,250
Jan 20205,000
Dec 20195,000
Oct 20194,752
Sept 20194,833
Aug 20194,625
Jul 20194,500
Jun 20194,500
May 20194,625
Mar 20195,000
Feb 20195,250
Jan 20195,000
Dec 20184,875
Nov 20185,250
Oct 20185,000
Sept 20185,000
Aug 20185,000
Jul 20185,000
Jun 20185,000
May 20184,500
Mar 20184,875
Feb 20185,500
Jan 20185,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2426-96-retail-kg.