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Food basket in Bukirasazi

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

24,823–34,846

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

24,435–42,629

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 27,280 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 24,823 and 34,846 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,435 and 42,629 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Bukirasazi: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 27,280 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 24,823 and 34,846 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 24,435 and 42,629 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 83,062); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 25,739–30,908 28,145 24,093–33,532
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 24,686–32,708 27,973 23,138–38,699
Nov 2026
Next month		 24,823–34,846 28,253 22,766–44,571
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 24,767–41,818 29,110 23,063–83,062
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 24,435–42,629 29,068 22,425–75,396
Cost history (89 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202627,280
Jun 202629,820
May 202633,091
Apr 202636,060
Mar 202629,661
Feb 202628,765
Jan 202624,687
Dec 202524,636
Nov 202523,739
Oct 202526,775
Sept 202528,498
Aug 202528,770
Jul 202530,790
Jun 202529,188
May 202530,437
Apr 202529,750
Mar 202529,587
Feb 202529,064
Jan 202527,272
Dec 202428,517
Nov 202427,441
Oct 202428,616
Sept 202428,023
Aug 202428,323
Jul 202427,120
Jun 202428,455
May 202426,659
Apr 202427,402
Mar 202427,413
Feb 202429,955
Jan 202429,901
Dec 202328,872
Nov 202328,110
Oct 202329,188
Sept 202327,212
Aug 202325,930
Jul 202326,613
Jun 202330,482
May 202328,431
Apr 202329,203
Mar 202331,240
Feb 202328,532
Dec 202222,665
Nov 202220,970
Oct 202218,375
Sept 202217,580
Aug 202218,836
Jul 202217,528
May 202217,363
Apr 202216,344
Mar 202213,057
Feb 202214,752
Jan 202215,707
Oct 202115,230
May 202114,442
Apr 202113,039
Mar 202114,204
Feb 202115,152
Jan 202112,677
Dec 202013,217
Nov 202012,399
Oct 202010,589
Sept 202011,230
Aug 202010,837
Jul 202011,168
Jun 202010,062
Mar 202010,437
Feb 202010,999
Jan 202010,870
Dec 201911,030
Oct 20199,094
Aug 20198,814
Jul 20198,936
Jun 20198,932
May 201910,382
Mar 20199,512
Feb 201912,078
Jan 20199,394
Dec 201810,335
Nov 201810,550
Oct 20189,042
Sept 201810,773
Aug 201811,170
Jul 201811,505
Jun 201812,556
May 201813,886
Mar 201812,631
Feb 201813,668
Jan 201813,065

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620