Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (palm) in Bururi

Bururi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,597–9,233

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,512–10,214

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,597 and 9,233 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,512 and 10,214 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Bururi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,597 and 9,233 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,512 and 10,214 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 12,842); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 6,854–8,617 7,545 6,281–8,976 8,697 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,631–8,797 7,510 5,683–11,159 8,782 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,597–9,233 7,497 5,647–11,818 8,478 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,555–9,488 7,579 5,569–12,053 8,646 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,512–10,214 7,797 5,420–12,842 9,356 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20267,833
Jul 20268,000
Jun 20268,304
May 20268,088
Apr 20268,250
Mar 20267,417
Feb 20267,619
Jan 20267,580
Dec 20257,141
Nov 20257,734
Oct 20258,873
Sept 20259,708
Aug 20259,250
Jul 20258,821
Jun 20258,312
May 20258,549
Apr 20259,438
Mar 202510,000
Feb 20258,589
Jan 20257,149
Dec 20246,221
Nov 20245,797
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20246,289
Aug 20246,176
Jul 20246,302
Jun 20246,021
May 20246,167
Apr 20245,375
Mar 20245,662
Feb 20245,682
Jan 20245,206
Dec 20236,000
Nov 20235,750
Oct 20235,717
Sept 20235,391
Aug 20235,417
Jul 20234,875
Jun 20235,795
May 20235,172
Apr 20235,083
Mar 20234,958
Feb 20235,083
Jan 20234,833
Dec 20224,333
Nov 20224,481
Oct 20223,660
Sept 20224,969
Aug 20225,725
May 20225,000
Apr 20224,000
Mar 20223,500
Feb 20223,300
Jan 20223,500
Oct 20213,667
Sept 20213,500
May 20212,800
Apr 20212,917
Mar 20213,100
Feb 20212,800
Jan 20212,500
Dec 20202,400
Nov 20202,200
Sept 20201,900
Aug 20202,500
Jul 20202,650
Jun 20202,650
Mar 20202,650
Feb 20202,350
Jan 20202,800
Dec 20192,433
Nov 20192,600
Oct 20192,440
Sept 20192,683
Aug 20192,767
Jul 20192,800
Jun 20192,500
May 20193,267
Mar 20192,467
Feb 20192,200
Jan 20192,640
Dec 20182,220
Nov 20181,975
Oct 20182,000
Sept 20181,920
Aug 20182,942
Jul 20183,400
Jun 20183,040
May 20182,725
Apr 20182,500
Mar 20182,000
Feb 20182,250
Jan 20182,167

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2427-62-retail-kg.